According to quick labor market statistics from the Department of Statistics, over the past year and a half, fewer young people aged 20–29 have started working both in the information and communications sector overall and in the more specific field of computer programming. If in previous years the programming industry grew precisely due to young people, then over the past year their number in this industry has decreased. :format(webp)/nginx/o/2024/05/28/16103325t1h9aa1.jpg)
Man at the computer. Illustrative photo Photo: Pressmaster/Shutterstock
According to quick labor market statistics from the Department of Statistics, over the past year and a half, fewer young people aged 20–29 have started working both in the information and communications sector overall and in the more specific field of computer programming. If in previous years the programming industry grew precisely due to young people, then over the past year their number in this industry has decreased.
In the last decade, the information and communication sector has been a benchmark for the Estonian labor market in terms of indicators: the highest salaries, the growth of the number of employees even in the midst of a crisis, the largest lack of an educated workforce according to employers and the greatest growth ambitions.
Employment register data showed that over the past year and a half, the number of employment relationships in the information and communications sector has decreased significantly. As of June this year, about 36,000 workers were registered there. Of these, more than half (22,000) are registered in the computer programming, consulting and other related services industry.
Computer programming, consulting and other related services created the most new jobs in the information and communications sector between 2019 and 2023, at 7,700, but again lost 600 jobs over the past year. In other industries, changes were less significant, but declines over the past year occurred in almost all of them.
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Photo: Department of Statistics
Young programmers were replaced by middle-aged workers
According to Department of Statistics data specialist Kadri Rootalu, the biggest changes in the programming industry are among younger workers.
“If previously the number of labor relations in the computer programming industry grew precisely due to young workers, over the past year this growth has slowed down and the number of workers aged 20–29 years there, on the contrary, has decreased,” Rootalu noted.
For example, in June 2022, there were 6,130 people aged 20–29 working in the computer programming industry; as of the end of June this year, the number of young workers had dropped to 5,070. At the same time, there were more workers aged forty and older in this industry : in 2022, 5,720 people aged 40–69 years worked there, in June of this year – already 6,880.
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Photo: Department of Statistics
Young professionals are leaving the industry
In the computer programming industry, the number of young professionals has decreased the most, for example, software developers, application programmers, system analysts, system administrators, etc. If in June 2023, 3,920 people of age worked in the programming industry as professional specialists 20–29 years old, then in June of this year there were only 3370.
In other age groups, such a significant reduction in the number of professionals was not observed, but in the age group of 40-59 years old, on the contrary, there were more of them.
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Photo: Department of Statistics
What caused these changes?
Department of Statistics data specialist Kadri Rootalu noted that the decline in the share of young people in the information and communications sector and in the more specific field of computer programming partly corresponds to changes in the composition of the population. While in 2019 the number of Estonian residents in the 20–29 age group was 153,000, as of January 1, 2024 it was only 136,000. However, the number of people in the 40–49 age group has increased over the years by more than than per 10,000 people.
“It can be assumed that young people who started working in the programming industry in previous years are now simply older,” Rootalu said. At the same time, she said, the question remains why the number of young people in the programming industry has declined in the last two years, if the share of young people in the general population has been declining for a long time.
“The only thing that stands out about those who have left the programming industry is that they are young. Of these, almost two thirds have Estonian citizenship and half have higher education,” Rootalu added.
