- According to the authors of the report, the highest projected additional cost of using a combustion car will be felt from 2035, when the increase in the ETS2 fee will be at least double. This means that to the current costs of using the car we will have to add additional average annual car wear costs of PLN 1,190 in the case of diesel, for owners of petrol cars it is an additional cost of PLN 1,032, and owners using LPG will pay the least because "only" PLN 980 zloty.
- In the case of transport, limiting the increase in its costs will be much more difficult and more expensive than in the case of limiting the increase in housing costs.
- This is due to the fact that the only practical way to achieve this will be to replace the car with an electric one, which involves an expense that is beyond the reach of a significant part of society – emphasize Wanda Buk and Marcin, authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the cost of living of Poles".
- With respect to motor fuels, ETS2 will operate on a similar principle to heating fuels.
- Its cost will be hidden in the price of fuel and consumers will be indirectly charged for it by fuel distributors. Based on the CO2 emission allowance price forecasts discussed in the report, the net increase in fuel prices related to ETS2 was calculated – emphasize Wanda Buk and Marcin, authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles".
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Will the ETS2 fee make heating homes with gas unprofitable after 2027?
As emphasized by Wanda Buk and Marcin, authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles", emissions in the transport sector come primarily from road transport, which is responsible for 95% of them, including passenger cars for 56%.
The increase in emissions is related to a constant increase in the number of vehicles in use and an increase in their average annual mileage, despite a decrease in the average emission of vehicles per 100 km. In Poland, transport was responsible for 20% of total emissions – emphasize Wanda Buk and Marcin, authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles".
This means that including transport in the ETS2 system will involve higher costs for the economies of European countries than covering emissions related to the burning of fossil fuels by households.
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Will the ETS2 fee ruin the owners of houses heated with coal and eco-pea coal?
The EU emissions trading system ETS2. When will the introduction of EU regulations start?
As emphasized by Wanda Buk and Marcin, authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles", as part of the Fitfor 55 package, the key legislative proposal was the reform of the CO₂ emission allowance trading system, which was extended by introducing a parallel ETS1 system to the one described in the previous chapter, CO₂ emission allowance trading system in the construction sector (related to the combustion of fossil fuels for heating), road transport and the so-called additional sectors (e.g. small heating plants not covered by ETS1).
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Poland cannot cope with the ETS2 emissions trading system. There will be consequences
These are sectors that are responsible for 30% of total emissions in the European Union and have not yet been covered by the ETS. In the case of ETS2, the emission reduction target for 2030 is 43% compared to 2005.
Unlike ETS1, those obliged to purchase and redeem allowances are not entities generating emissions, but only those who introduce fuels used in the above-mentioned sectors to the market, i.e. de facto distributors of coal, natural gas and liquid fuels. Today, it is not yet determined at what stage these entities will be burdened with incurring the costs. Naturally, they will add this cost to the price for the end customer, i.e. also for owners of combustion cars – emphasize Wanda Buk and Marcin, authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles".
Many studies on ETS2 indicate that the price of emission allowances is limited (unlike ETS1) to EUR 45 per tonne.
However, this is not true. The directive only assumes that if the average price of allowances over the next two months exceeds EUR 45, 20 million additional allowances are released from the market stability reserve. The system architects assumed that the release of additional allowances to the market would effectively reduce the price below the assumed EUR 45, but this cannot be certain, especially since the mechanism for releasing additional allowances may be used again no earlier than after another 12 months (in an exceptional case after 6 months with the consent of the special committee). Moreover, the forecasts of the European Commission from 2024, i.e. the moment when the principles of operation of the system were known, indicate that allowance prices will exceed the level of EUR 45 already in 2028 – emphasize Wanda Buk and Marcin, the authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles."
In accordance with the provisions of the Directive, entities that place fossil fuels on the market in sectors covered by ETS2 must, from January 1, 2025, have a permit to conduct such activities and introduce an appropriate monitoring and reporting system.
The obligation to redeem emission allowances enters into force from January 1, 2027, although a one-year delay in the launch of the system is possible if, on June 30, 2026, the average TTF gas price over the six calendar months was higher than the average TTF gas price in February and March 2022 . or if the average price of Brent crude oil for the six preceding calendar months was more than twice the average price of Brent crude oil for the previous five years. Taking into account the criteria described above, only an extraordinary market situation, comparable to the recent energy crisis, may result in the postponement of the entry into force of the ETS2 system – emphasize Wanda Buk and Marcin, authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles".
According to the authors of the report, member states are obliged to implement the provisions regarding ETS2 by July 2025, and at the time of preparing this report, the Ministry of Climate and Environment has not presented a draft legal act implementing the amendment to the directive.
How will the costs of using cars in households increase due to the introduction of ETS2 fees
As noted by Wanda Buk and Marcin, authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles", the average mileage of cars in 2022 in Poland varied depending on the type of fuel used. Diesel cars drove on average 13,579 km, and 20% of such cars drove more than 22,748 km. The average diesel consumption was 7.22 l/km, the most economical 10% consumed less than 5.55 l/km, and the most fuel-efficient 20% consumed more than 9.04 l/km.
In 2022, the average mileage of a car with a petrol engine was 12,899 km, 20% of such cars drove more than 19,916 km.
On average, vehicles with a petrol engine consumed 7.52 l/km, 10% of the most economical vehicles consumed less than 5.84 l/km, and 20% of the most fuel-efficient vehicles consumed more than 9.22 l/km. In turn, the average mileage of LPG-powered cars was 14,623 km, and 20% of such cars drove more than 24,903 km.
On average, LPG-powered vehicles consumed 10.18 l/km, 10% of the most economical vehicles consumed less than 7.96 l/km, and 20% of the most fuel-efficient vehicles consumed more than 12.52 l/km. Table 11 shows the increase in the costs of using a passenger car due to ETS2.
When calculating the impact of the costs of introducing the ETS fee on the use of combustion cars, the authors assumed that the mileage of the car is 10,000 km and the average fuel consumption is at the average level for a given engine type.
In the case of transport, limiting the increase in its costs will be much more difficult and more expensive than in the case of limiting the increase in housing costs. This is due to the fact that the only practical way to achieve this will be to replace the car with an electric one, which involves an expense that is beyond the reach of a large part of society – emphasize Wanda Buk and Marcin, authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the cost of living of Poles".
In 2023, 475,000 were registered in Poland. new cars, which was an increase of 13.2% y/y. Individuals bought 131,000. new cars.
For comparison, there were 27,347 thousand registered cars. Industry experts estimate that a significant part of registered cars is not actually used, and the number of used cars is approximately 20 million. For comparison, at the end of April 2024, a total of 64,495 electric passenger and commercial cars were registered in Poland – emphasize Wanda Buk and Marcin, authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles".
Additional net cost of driving a car 10,000 km on average fuel consumption in connection with ETS2 depending on the type of fuel used at constant prices from 2023 [PLN]
fuel type/year 2027 2028 2029 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 diesel +PLN 255 +PLN 425 +PLN 467 +PLN 467 + PLN 1,190 +PLN 2,465 +PLN 3,655 +PLN 4,165 +PLN 4,420 petrol +PLN 221 +PLN 369 +405 PLN +PLN 405 +PLN 1,032 + PLN 2,137 +PLN 3,169 +PLN 3,611 +PLN 3,833 LPG +PLN +PLN 350 +PLN 385 +PLN 385 +PLN 980 +PLN 2,029 +PLN 3,009 +PLN 3,429 +PLN 3,639
Source: Calculations from the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2" on the cost of living of Poles based on the EC database
According to the authors of the report, the highest projected additional cost of using a combustion car will be felt from 2035, when the increase in the ETS2 fee will be at least double.
This means that to the current costs of using the car we will have to add additional average annual car wear costs of PLN 1,190 in the case of diesel, for owners of petrol cars it is an additional cost of PLN 1,032, and owners using LPG will pay the least because "only" PLN 980 zloty.
Targeting support programs for people replacing their cars with new ones leads to a situation where the subsidies are awarded to the relatively wealthiest people or companies (if they are not excluded from the possibility of applying for subsidies), which does not contribute to the fair nature of the energy transformation.
How will motor fuel prices increase due to the introduction of ETS2 fees?
With respect to motor fuels, ETS2 will operate on a similar principle to heating fuels.
Its cost will be hidden in the fuel price and consumers will be indirectly charged for it by fuel distributors. Based on the CO2 emission allowance price forecasts discussed in the report, the net increase in fuel prices related to ETS2 was calculated – emphasize Wanda Buk and Marcin, authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles".
Net additional cost of transport fuels due to ETS2 in prices
constants from 2023 [PLN/l]
fuel type/year 2027 2028 2029 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 diesel +0.35 +0.59 PLN +0.65 PLN +0.65 PLN +1.65 PLN +3.41 PLN +5.06 PLN +5 PLN .77 +PLN 6.12 petrol +PLN 0.29 +PLN 0.49 +PLN 0.54 +PLN 0.54 +PLN 1.37 +PLN 2.84 +PLN 4.22 +PLN 4.80 + PLN 5.10 LPG +PLN 0.21 +PLN 0.34 +PLN 0.38 + PLN 0.38 +PLN 0.96 +PLN 1.99 +PLN 2.96 +PLN 3.77 +PLN 3.58
Source: Calculations from the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2" on the cost of living of Poles based on the EC database
The largest price increase due to ETS2 will be recorded for a liter of diesel, which is due to its higher emissions per liter of fuel. The increase in fuel costs will affect households both directly when they fill up their car and indirectly. The indirect impact will concern the increased costs of transport services – emphasize Wanda Buk and Marcin, authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles".
Fuel consumption in Poland has been in an upward trend for years, and the forecasts of the Polish Organization of Petroleum Industry and Trade indicate that this trend will continue until 2030.
Assuming fuel consumption at the 2023 level, the total net cost of purchasing transport-related emission allowances will be approximately PLN 11.5 billion in 2027, and in 2030 it will increase to PLN 21 billion. Such a high increase in the costs of purchasing fuel will force entrepreneurs to increase the prices of their goods and services – summarize Wanda Buk and Marcin, authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles".
