Poland is one of the countries where the launch of ETS2 will be most severe. Due to climatic reasons, we are among the countries with heat demand exceeding the EU average. We also have the highest use of coal in Europe, which is the most emissive fuel, for heating residential buildings. The highest costs of the ETS2 system will be borne by residents of the oldest, uninsulated single-family buildings.
As the authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles" emphasize, we will experience a sharp increase in prices for home heating twice – after the launch of ETS2 in 2027 and in 2030 – after the merger of ETS1 and ETS2.
In the initial period, if the price of CO2 emission allowances increases above EUR 45 per tonne, the number of emission allowances available on the market will increase, which may result in a decline in their prices. However, the biggest changes will be felt after 2028.
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Is this the last chance to buy cheap coal and eco-pea coal to heat your home?
How will CO2 emission fees increase in Poland from 2028?
The European Commission predicts an increase in prices above the initially assumed ceiling of EUR 45 per tonne to EUR 50 as early as 2028. After the systems are connected, the prices of emission allowances from ETS2 will be equal to those of ETS1 (the average price in 2023 is EUR 83.85), and households and small enterprises will compete with power plants, steelworks and cement plants for the purchase of a limited number of emission allowances. If the decline in industrial emissions is lower than currently expected, households will face a much higher cost than currently expected.
The fulfillment of this scenario will lead to a situation in which some citizens may be forced to give up their own means of transport and lower the thermal standards of their apartments – emphasize the authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the cost of living of Poles" – Therefore, it is necessary to start diplomatic and lobbying efforts today. in the European Union aimed at maintaining the separate ETS1 and ETS2 systems after 2030 and introducing an effective mechanism limiting the price level in the ETS1 and ETS2 systems.
How will the increase in ETS2 fees affect the rising costs of heating homes with coal? Now each of us can check it.
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How will the ETS2 tax on the purchase of coal for heating houses with coal increase?
According to our analyses, which we based on forecasts of allowance prices prepared by the European Commission, the introduction of ETS2 will affect the prices below in the following way – emphasize the authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles".
Forecast price of 1 tonne of coal, which currently ranges from PLN 1,200 to PLN 1,500 and will increase with the additional ETS2 fee by [PLN/t]:
2027 2028 2029 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 +PLN 306/t +PLN 509/t +PLN 560/t +PLN 560/t +PLN 1,426/t +PLN 2,954/t +PLN 4,381/t +PLN 4,992/t + PLN 5,298/ton
What does this mean according to the report's authors?
This means that in 2027, if we pay approximately PLN 1,200-1,500 per tonne of coal or eco-pea coal, we will have to pay an additional ETS tax of approximately PLN 306 per tonne, i.e. approximately PLN 1,806 per tonne (PLN 1,500+306). However, already in 2029-2030, owners of houses heated with coal will have to pay additional ETS2 fees per tonne of coal, amounting to up to PLN 560/t, i.e. we will pay approximately PLN 2,060 for 1 tonne of coal (PLN 1,500 + PLN 560).
How will this translate into an increase in the costs of heating your home with coal when the ETS tax on CO2 emissions starts to increase?
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How much more will we pay for heating our house with coal due to CO2 emissions?
As we read in the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles", for an average Polish family (statistically average based on the Central Statistical Office data), the accumulated additional cost of ETS2 in the case of coal heating is PLN 10,311 and PLN 39,074, respectively, in 2027-2030.
The additional annual net cost of heating a building with an average consumption of coal for heating purposes and an area of 100 m2 will be [PLN]:
2027 2028 2029 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 PLN 1,039 PLN 1,732 PLN 1,905 PLN 1,905 PLN 4,849 PLN 10,045 PLN 14,895 PLN 16,973 PLN 18,012
What does this mean, according to the authors of the report "Analysis of the impact of ETS2 on the costs of living of Poles"?
Therefore, in order to cover the additional costs related to ETS2, the average Polish family in 2027 will have to spend 73% (in 2030 – 134%) of their average salary on heating with coal.
The additional annual cost of heating domestic water with coal by a household, based on the average consumption of hot water, will increase as follows [PLN]:
2027 2028 2029 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 PLN 153 PLN 254 PLN 280 PLN 280 PLN 712 PLN 1,475 PLN 2,187 PLN 2,492 PLN 2,645
This means that we will have to pay an additional PLN 1,475 a year to the current annual amount we pay for heating domestic hot water, e.g. in 2035.
Calculate for yourself how much the fees for heating your home with coal will increase due to the ETS tax
A calculator is available on the website www.ets2koszty.pl which, based on individual fuel consumption, will enable each of us to independently calculate the costs related to emissions that each of us will have to incur.
In the calculator, we choose the size of the house, the type of insulation, how much water we use and whether we heat the house with coal or natural gas. Source: www.ets2koszty.pl
We calculated using a calculator how much the costs of heating a house with an area of approx. 100 m2 with the 2014 insulation standard and the costs of heating domestic hot water using only coal. You can also select other parameters, e.g. for natural gas.
The chart shows how the projected fees for heating a house with coal will increase due to ETS2 fees. Source: www.ets2koszty.pl
The calculator also calculated the projected rising costs of ETS 2 fees for a coal-heated house with an area of 100 m2 with hot water in the coming years.
The calculator also calculated the projected rising costs of ETS 2 fees for a coal-heated house with an area of 100 m2 with hot water in the coming years. Source: www.ets2koszty.pl
Either way, we will have to replace coal and eco-pea coal stoves by 2030.
MKiŚ one way or another in cities with over 100,000 inhabitants. inhabitants want to phase out heating with coal and eco-pea coal by 2030 anyway, in accordance with the latest NECP findings. What you will read about in the article below:
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This means that coal and eco-pea coal boilers will serve as decorative or museum pieces in homes in about 6 years. Home owners will have to replace them with more energy-efficient and ecological ones, such as pellet stoves or wood-gassing stoves, or with natural gas (mixed with hydrogen, the so-called H2Ready) and, for example, with heat pumps.
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What about heating houses with natural gas? How to bypass the EU ban?
