Last week, wheat prices on world stock exchanges increased. While the prices for European wheat remain quite strong (the price is higher by approximately EUR 40/t compared to the low reached at the turn of February and March this year), the prices of American wheat have slightly rebounded from the 4-year low marked only a few days ago ago.
The price of corn on CBoT is the lowest in almost 4 years
Corn futures, on the other hand, fell cheaper last week. As in the case of wheat, corn on MATIF is currently quoted nearly EUR 40/t higher than the minimum set at the turn of February and March this year, while the price of corn on CBoT has fallen to levels last seen nearly 4 years ago.
The relatively "stronger" prices of European cereals are caused by falling harvest forecasts in the EU (the latest EC forecast below) and in Ukraine.
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PLN 1.14 billion on farmers' accounts as part of cereal subsidies
Wheat in the September delivery contract on MATIF fell by 0.2% on Friday. and cost EUR 219.75/t (PLN 943/t), and y/y prices dropped by 8.4%. During the week, the price increased by 1.2%. The price of corn on the Paris Stock Exchange fell by 4.7% in the August contract. and amounted to EUR 203.00/t (PLN 871/t), and over the last year it decreased by 15.5%. On a weekly basis, the prices decreased by 7.7%. The large price drop is the result of the end of the August series quotation period. However, the next closest series of the contract with delivery in November (including new crops) is slightly more expensive – by EUR 3/t.
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Wheat on CBoT in the September contract increased by 1.3% on Friday. and cost USD 198.05/t. On a y/y basis, quotations decreased by 14.0%. For a week, the price increased by 3.0%. The price of corn in the September delivery contract on the Chicago Stock Exchange increased by 1.2%. and amounted to USD 152.16/t, and over the last year it decreased by 19.6%. On a weekly basis, prices fell by 2.0%.
Forecasts for cereal production in the EU are down again
On July 25, the European Commission announced the latest forecasts for the EU cereal harvest in the 2024/25 season. Wheat harvest is expected to be lower by 4.8 million tonnes compared to the previous season and will amount to 121.8 million tonnes (a decrease in estimates by 1 million tonnes/m). Harvest declines are forecast among the largest EU producers – in France by 5.3 million tons to 29.7 million tons, in Germany by 1.1 million tons to 20.2 million and in Poland by 0.2 million tons to 13.0 million vol.
In the case of corn, the EC forecasts an increase in harvest by 0.2 million t to 63.1 million t (a decrease in forecasts by 1.9 million tm/m). Among the largest EU producers, the harvest will increase in France – by 0.8 million tonnes to 13.5 million tonnes, and in Romania – it will decrease by 1.4 million tonnes to 9.5 million tonnes, while in Poland it will decrease – by 0.6 million tonnes to 8 million tonnes. .6 million tons
MATIF wheat, September contract – the price fell by 0.23% on Friday. (EUR 219.75/t – PLN 943/t).
Chart 1.
The quotations of September wheat futures contracts expressed in PLN are presented in the chart below:
Chart 2
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Purchase prices of cereals and rapeseed. Consumer cereals more expensive than at the end of July
In the continuation chart below of wheat contracts listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, the long-term downtrend dominates, the medium-term trend is upward, and the short-term trend is downward.
Chart 3
CBOT wheat, September contract – price increased by 1.32%. ($198.05/t- PLN 786/t).
Chart 4
The Chicago stock exchange is currently dominated by a long-term downward trend, a medium-term downward trend, and a short-term downward trend.
Chart 5
MATIF corn, August contract – price dropped by 4.69%. (EUR 203.00/t – PLN 871/t).
Chart 6
The quotations of August corn futures contracts expressed in PLN are presented in the chart below:
Chart 7
In the continuation chart below of corn contracts listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, the long-term downtrend dominates, the medium-term trend is upward, and the short-term trend is downward.
Chart 8
CBOT corn, September contract – price increased by 1.18%. ($152.16/t- PLN 604/t).
Chart 9
The continuation chart of corn contracts listed on CBOT is dominated by a long-term downward trend, a medium-term downward trend, and a short-term downward trend.
Chart 10
