As informs analysts PKO Bank of Poland in the latest Agro Navigator, there is an increase in milk production in New Zeland, which at the beginning season 2024/25 has transferred into a favorable picture of milk production by leading exporters in the second half of 2024 year. New Zealand supplies in the period July-October 2024 were higher by 4.3 percent year/year.
Beginning 2025 may however bring a slowdown of supplies in this country.
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2024 for dairy will end better than it began
Greater results in EU, but better in Poland
Slightly worse performance was also recorded in the EU – according KE production in the period July-October .October was approaching the level of last year’s increase of 0,9 proc. year/year in 1 half 2024 year. Still have strengthened in milk production in Poland. In the period July-October they were higher by 2.7 percent. year/year according KE, a in November domestic purchases increased by 2.8 percent. year/year.
Milk production will increase?
According analysts PKO Bank of Poland, the supply of milk in the world may increase in 2025 year. According USDA production in the five most world exporters and in China will increase by 0.5 percent year/year against increase by 0.3 percent. in 2024. Dynamics in the medium period will be limited by supplies in the EU. According KE, EU production of cow
milk after increase by 0.6 proc. in 2025 will start decreasing. In the years 2024-2035 average
yearly decrease of 0.1 percent. and will result from declining cow heads.
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Market products dairy withEarly year on minus
Recovery in Poland exports of dairy
As economists point out, Poland dairy exports began recovering in 2 half 2024 year. The sales value in the July-October period increased by nearly 10 percent, mainly thanks to higher prices, after declining by 8 percent year/year in 1 half of 2024 year.
The value increase was driven by sales of milk liquid. Exports in mass of commodity have however remained stable. Also changed the geographical structure of exports. In view of the decline of exports to China on the importance gained countries EU, other markets Asian and African. The largest growth in sales was recorded in Germany (milk liquid, cheese). Major growth was also recorded to Algeria (milk in
powder).
However, there is a decrease in China in 2025 – USDA estimates, that imports of fat
milk in powder will decrease by 13 percent. r/yr (after decrease by 33 proc. in 2024),
a milk liquid will decrease by 4 proc. r/yr (-13 proc. in 2024).
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What will 2025 year
– We estimate, that the annual dynamic price of milk (CSO) in 2025 will average from -2 proc. to +12 proc. year/year. from one party growing world consumption
does not give space to significant cuts in prices of dairy products, from the other side the dynamics of
production in the world may slightly accelerate. In 1h25 prices may be higher by 4-13 proc. year/year,andbytheendof2025we do notexcludedeclinesinyear-forecastanalystsPKOBankPoland.