- PLN 192 billion – this is how much the e-commerce market will be valued at in 2028, it is expected to grow by 8% annually (CAGR).
- PLN 52 billion – this is how much the market valuation will increase in the forecast period (2024 – 2028).
- From 28% to as much as 60% – this is how much individual categories will grow in the forecast period (2024 – 2028).
Key market segments such as electronics, home and garden, and fashion will continue to dominate, although their market share will decline. There is also significant growth potential in segments such as e-grocery and automotive. Mobile shopping is gaining in importance, and m-commerce is expected to overtake traditional e-commerce in the next 4 years. Strategy& experts assume in their models that Poland will strive to catch up with the West in terms of the number of users, shopping frequency, and basket size.
The Polish e-commerce market is experiencing a decline in projected growth levels compared to 2022 forecasts.
“In the face of changing macroeconomic factors, the Polish e-commerce market is experiencing a decline in expected growth levels compared to 2022 forecasts. The economic slowdown and inflationary pressure in 2023 resulted in a loss of the post-covid growth rate. Despite the improvement in the consumer confidence index, Poles are more likely to look at prices and manage their budgets more consciously, which is the result of, among other things, inflation,” says Krzysztof Badowski, Managing Partner of Strategy& in Poland.
The e-commerce market in Poland is in the maturity phase
The Polish e-commerce market is developed, and the growth is increasingly driven not by the number of users, but by how often and how much we buy. The number of Internet users and the number of online purchases in Poland have only slightly increased since the beginning of the pandemic, which suggests that the market is in a mature phase – from 85% in 2020 to 88% in 2024. However, both the frequency of purchases and the average basket value have grown significantly in recent years. The former increased from an average of 15.3 times per year in 2020 to 17.7 in 2023. At the same time, the value of the basket in the same time period increased by 9% – from PLN 233 to PLN 304. Polish consumers are changing their shopping habits, making more frequent and larger online purchases, encouraged by payment solutions (e.g. BLIK) and logistics solutions (e.g. parcel machines with a higher density.
“The e-commerce market in Poland has reached maturity, which leads to increasing competition. The increase in sales volumes is not only due to channel expansion, but also to intense competition between market players. Despite these challenges, we expect further, but realistic market development and an increase in the share of e-commerce in total retail sales in Poland,” says Maciej Kroenke, Strategy& partner in Poland.
The average value of purchases in Poland is PLN 304, while the EU average is PLN 329.
There is growth potential in the penetration of Internet users and e-commerce compared to other European countries. The average value of purchases in Poland is PLN 304, while the EU average is PLN 329 and in Western Europe it is PLN 352. At the same time, in Poland, 88% of the population are Internet users, and 73% of them are e-commerce users. The EU average is 92% and 76%, respectively, and in Western Europe 93% and 78%. The frequency of purchases in Poland (17.7 per year) is already at the level of other European markets (the EU average is 17.5). In the category of "digital leaders", as much as 94% of the population are Internet users, of whom 90% are e-commerce users, and the average frequency of purchases for this group of countries is 21.3. The group of digital leaders includes the Netherlands, the Czech Republic, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Estonia and Ireland.
“Key market segments such as electronics, home and garden, and fashion will continue to dominate, but we also see significant growth potential in the e-grocery segment. Mobile shopping is gaining in importance and we predict that m-commerce will take over traditional e-commerce in the next 4 years. Providing excellent customer experience will be one of the key success factors, as consumers increasingly value personalized, seamless and frictionless shopping experiences,” says Krzysztof Kończyk, Director of Strategy& in Poland.
The most positive view of the last 12 months is taken by marketplaces, which indicate new users as the main contributor to growth.
Awareness of e-commerce and trust in it are the strong points driving the growth of the channel. Over 60% of consumers believe that online shopping is safe. Market experts positively assess the last 12 months in terms of the change in the share of e-commerce in total sales and are optimistic about the development of the market in the long term. The divergent views of experts on different segments result from different maturity and specificity of the category. The most positive view of the last 12 months is taken by marketplaces, which indicate new users as the main contributor to growth. For the entire market, inflation (increase in product prices) is indicated as the main growth factor, but also a greater frequency of purchases and premiumization (conscious choice of more expensive products). The direction of e-commerce development depends on the industry – some experts predict a reduction in stationary sales (electronics and household appliances, automotive), while others are convinced of the further coexistence of these channels (e.g. home and garden, beauty).
Strategy& is a global strategy consulting firm.
