Agneska Maliszewska, director of the office of the Polish Chamber of Milk, first vice-president of COGECA, shared on one of the social networks her assessment of the current situation in the butter market and forecasts for the coming quarters.
“I have the impression that for the last few months the topic of butter prices has dominated the media. Journalists have been asking me what the price forecasts are and whether we will be paying more than PLN 10 per cube of butter before Christmas? See how the analysis looks from the point of view of the EC and the annual Outlook analysis,” Maliszewska pointed out.
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Butter production in the EU is likely to fall
As reported, butter prices in the EU rose sharply in 2024, exceeding €7/kg for average EU prices before the fall. The price increase was due to limited supply and stable demand, Maliszewska pointed out.
“Butter production in the EU is likely to decline (-1.6 percent) in 2024. At the same time, high prices in the EU have prevented butter exports from sustaining growth, which are likely to decline (-4 percent) in 2024 from last year’s high levels. The use of butter may adjust to the declining price competitiveness of butter (also in relation to other fats).” – Maliszewska noted.
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Predictions for the milk market in the coming quarters
She also shared forecasts for the coming quarters.
“Based on the increase in production of fresh dairy products in the first three quarters, production is likely to increase (+0.5 percent) in 2024.Also, the production of cream and yogurt could grow dynamically (+2 percent), along with a slightly increasing supply of drinking milk (+0.3 percent).” – Maliszewska stressed.
She also stated that exports from the EU are likely to continue to decline (-3 percent), due to falling import demand in China.
“Lower exports may shift additional volumes to the EU domestic market, causing domestic consumption to increase (+0.6 percent). In 2025, EU consumption is likely to return to the downward trend of the past few years (driven by drinking milk), and exports could erode further due to continued weak global demand (-3 percent). With negative demand drivers both domestically and in global markets, EU production could fall to levels comparable to 2022 (-0.8 percent).” – Maliszewska stressed.
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