Record wheat harvest in the world
The latest monthly USDA report published yesterday afternoon did not improve the price situation of wheat on the world exchanges (an increase in harvest forecasts to a record level). Expectations for global corn production deteriorated slightly, which was enough to bounce the price of American corn from the nearly 4-year low set on Friday (details of the report below).
Wheat in the September delivery contract at MATIF fell 1.2 percent yesterday and cost 214.50 euro/t (925 PLN/t), and year-on-year the price fell 12.4 percent. The price of corn on the Paris exchange in the November contract fell 0.5 percent and amounted to 202.75 euro/t (874 PLN/t), and over the past year it has fallen 11.5 percent.
Only corn went up in price on CBoT
Wheat on CBoT in the September contract fell by 1.1% and cost USD 197.22/t. In year-on-year terms, prices fell by 14.4%. The price of corn in the September contract on the Chicago exchange increased by 1.7% and amounted to USD 150.88/t, and over the past year it has fallen by 19.2%.
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The harvest is not over yet. Where has the grain not gone to the scythe?
The global wheat harvest in the 2024/25 season, according to the August USDA report, is expected to reach a record 798.28 million tons – an increase of 8.61 million tons compared to the previous season (the forecast was raised by 2.09 million tons for a month). Final stocks at the end of the current season are forecast at 256.62 million tons – 5.74 million tons lower than estimated at the end of the previous season – these will be the lowest stocks in several years.
Among the world's most important producers and exporters of wheat, a decrease in harvest in the current season (compared to the previous season) is expected in Russia – by 8.5 million tonnes to 83.0 million tonnes, in the European Union – by 6.87 million tonnes to 128.00 million tonnes (m/m decrease by 2.0 million tonnes) and in Ukraine – by 1.4 million tonnes to 21.6 million tonnes.
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Extra Cobs on Corn. How Do They Affect Yield?
Wheat production is forecast to increase in Argentina by 2.94 million tonnes to 18.0 million tonnes, in the USA by 4.62 million tonnes to 53.93 million tonnes, in Kazakhstan by 3.89 million tonnes to 16.0 million tonnes, in Canada by 3.05 million tonnes to 35.0 million tonnes, and in Australia by 4.0 million tonnes to 30.0 million tonnes. In other large producing countries (but not exporters), the harvest in India is expected to amount to 114.00 million tonnes (an increase of 3.45 million tonnes) and in China 140.0 million tonnes (an increase of 3.4 million tonnes).
According to the August USDA report, the world corn harvest in the current season will amount to 1219.82 million tons – a decrease of 3.98 million tons compared to the previous season (a decrease in the forecast for the month by 4.97 million tons). The reserves at the end of the current season are to increase by 1.65 million tons to 310.17 million tons. In the USA, a decrease in production of 4.95 million tons to 384.74 million tons is forecast (an increase in the forecast m/m by 1.18 million tons), in Brazil the increase is to amount to 5.0 million tons to 127.0 million tons, in Ukraine a decrease of 5.3 million tons to 27.2 million tons is expected, in the European Union the harvest is to be lower by 0.95 million tons and will amount to 60.5 million tons, in Argentina lower by 2.0 million tons and increase to 51.0 million tons.
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In Russia, wheat harvests have been reduced even further
MATIF wheat, September contract – price fell by 1.15% (EUR 214.50/t – PLN 925/t).
Chart 1.
The September wheat futures quotes expressed in zlotys are presented in the chart below:
Chart 2
The following continuation chart of wheat futures listed on the Paris stock exchange shows a long-term downtrend, a medium-term uptrend and a short-term downtrend.
Chart 3
CBOT wheat, September contract – price fell by 1.06 percent (197.22 USD/t – 779 PLN/t).
Chart 4
The Chicago Stock Exchange is currently experiencing a long-term downtrend, a medium-term downtrend, and a short-term downtrend.
Chart 5
MATIF corn, November contract – price fell by 0.49% (EUR 202.75/t – PLN 874/t).
Chart 6
The November corn futures quotes expressed in zlotys are presented in the chart below:
Chart 7
In the following continuation chart of corn futures listed on the Paris stock exchange, the long-term trend is downward, the medium-term trend is upward, and the short-term trend is downward.
Chart 8
CBOT corn, September contract – price increased by 1.73 percent (150.88 USD/t – 596 PLN/t).
Chart 9
The continuation chart of corn futures listed on CBOT is dominated by a long-term downtrend, the medium-term is downward, and the short-term is downward.
Chart 10
