What's going on in the grain market? There are countries where wheat harvest forecasts have been increased

Co na rynku zbóż? Są kraje, gdzie podwyższono prognozy zbiorów pszenicy

We wrote many times on farmer.pl that now the so-called weather market. The harvest has already started in some regions, e.g. in Ukraine. We have the first barley harvest. What about the forecasts?

Ukraine with higher harvests

According to UkrAgroConsult based on the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, grain production forecasts were increased by 7%. Taras Wysocki, who is acting agriculture minister, said production in the war-torn country had been revised upwards to 56 million tonnes, compared with 52.6 tonnes in previous estimates. The projection covers 21 million tons of wheat, 28.5 million tons of corn and 5 million tons of barley.

– He also noted that total agricultural exports, which include grains, oils and oilseeds, are expected to exceed 60 million tonnes. This total would include 25 million tons of corn and 15 million tons of wheat, the website reports.

According to data from the USDA, the country will be the world's fourth corn exporter and sixth wheat exporter in the 2023/2024 season.

Marciniak on the wheat market: Current prices are influenced by the balance sheet reduction in Russia

Romania is also adjusting its harvest

And this is based on the assessments from field inspections. These data were provided by Argus by Przemysław Błażejewski, a grain broker on the X platform.

– Romania, one of the main grain exporters in the EU, may harvest a record 10.4 million tons of wheat in 2024. Forecast – is based on field inspection carried out on June 3-6. The improved forecasts also apply to Bulgaria and Ukraine. Higher wheat harvests in the Romanian region may to some extent offset the expected decline in production in the EU, especially in France and Germany. Good harvest prospects in Romania include the increased area of winter cereal sowing for two decades and the expected high yields. Romanian farmers are increasing the share of winter cereals, such as wheat and barley, instead of corn, which is increasingly suffering from summer heat and drought. In addition, the wheat acreage also reflects a 30% decrease in rapeseed acreage compared to the previous year due to dry weather, he wrote.

What's happening in the southern hemisphere?

Here we have reports from Argentina via the Latifundist website. In Argentina, the new wheat harvest is expected to exceed last year's by more than 40 percent.

– Wheat production in Argentina in the 2024/2025 season may reach 21 million tons and will be 44.8% higher than in the previous season (14.5 million tons). This is what analysts at the Rosario Grain Exchange forecast – writes APK-Inform quoted by the website.

The weather there is favorable. There is sufficient soil moisture to ensure good production prospects and an active sowing rate. Additionally, farmers, expecting new rainfall, can increase the area under grain.

According to USDA forecasts, the wheat harvest in Argentina in the 2024/2025 season will amount to 17.5 million tons, and exports will amount to 11.5 million tons.