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VTB: Which Cars Will Become Cheaper in 2024

ВТБ: какие автомобили подешевели в 2024 году

Experts from VTB Bank, Otkritie Bank and the Automarketeologist company analyzed the dynamics of average weighted prices for new passenger cars in Russia and identified segments in which prices decreased in 2024. The leaders were sports cars, luxury cars and business class cars .

f.t.Photographer/Shutterstock/Fotodom

ftPhotographer/Shutterstock/Fotodom

Since the beginning of the year, the average weighted price (the price calculated based on the average recommended prices of distributors taking into account the volume of registrations in the State Traffic Safety Inspectorate for each car model) for new passenger cars in Russia has gradually increased and reached its “peak” in March — 3.3 million rubles. After that, the indicator began to decline and by May it reached the minimum value this year — 2.77 million rubles. In June and July, the average weighted “price” for new passenger cars was set at around 2.8 million rubles. In August, according to preliminary expert estimates, this indicator grew even more and approached 3 million rubles. This is approximately 6% higher than in 2023.

At the same time, a number of segments of the car market recorded a decrease in prices. Thus, the average weighted cost of new cars in the F+S segment (luxury cars and sports cars) for January-July decreased by 15% compared to the same period in 2023 and amounted to 14.38 million rubles. At the same time, the average weighted price of E-segment cars (business class) decreased by 3%: at the end of July, it was set at 6.17 million rubles.

According to experts, this trend is largely due to the stabilization of prices for luxury and sports cars after a noticeable increase last year, as well as a reduced supply in the high-price segment, in contrast to the mass segment. The largest increase in the average weighted price since the beginning of 2024 is recorded in the subcompact car segment (A-segment) – +80%, to 2.48 million rubles, and in the minivan market – +54%, to 6.6 million rubles.

"The changes in the dynamics of the average weighted price for new cars that we are seeing in 2024 directly depend on the sales structure on the market," said Tatyana Akimova, executive director of Automarketologist . "In particular, they are explained by the growth of the Lada brand share in the first half of the year. In the fall, the average weighted price will most likely continue to grow, which will be, among other things, a consequence of another increase in prices for Lada cars, which occurred in mid-August. This trend will also be formed under the influence of factors that affect the growth of prices recommended by distributors."

Until the end of the year, average weighted prices will also be affected by an increase in recycling fee rates and a temporary surge in activity by sellers who are now trying to import more cars before October 1.

"Other factors include changes in import duties on cars, the cost of logistics and customs services, as well as inflation expectations. Nevertheless, we expect that car manufacturers will strive to maintain prices acceptable to consumers by developing incentive programs – discounts, bonuses, installment programs," added Vladimir Vysotsky, Vice President and Head of VTB's Auto Loan Partnership Sales Department.

In the second half of the year, the share of new cars on the market will return to the beginning of 2022.

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