The increasingly higher level of immigration in Poland will not compensate for the lower number of births. According to the Central Statistical Office, villages and less attractive cities will be depopulated the fastest.
– Life expectancy increased significantly in the 1990s. We started to catch up with other European Union countries, but unfortunately we still lag behind other countries in terms of life expectancy. But changes related to education and the perception of the role of women resulted in a reduction in the number of births. So we have a decreasing fertility rate and an increasing life expectancy, which in turn causes our population to age – says Prof. Newseria Biznes. Ph.D. Elżbieta Gołata, chairwoman of the Committee of Demographic Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences from the Poznań University of Economics.
The Central Statistical Office report "The situation of older people in Poland" shows that at the end of 2022, the number of people aged 60 and over amounted to 9.8 million. The share of older people in the Polish population reached almost 26%. In the following years, this percentage will grow – in 2040, every third Pole will be 60 years old or older, and in 2060 – four out of 10.
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Men in rural areas live shorter lives than men in cities
The population has been decreasing since 2012 (except for 2017). Natural growth has remained negative for a decade. At the end of the first quarter of this year. Poland's population amounted to just over 37.5 million people (nearly 133,000 less than a year ago and over 40,000 less than at the end of 2023). For every 10 thousand Poland's population decreased by 11 people. The birth rate is falling practically year by year – only 64.5 thousand were born in the first quarter. kids.
– In Poland, demographic changes were further strengthened by a very intense emigration process, especially after joining the European Union. In the middle of the last decade, a transformation took place: Poland became not only an emigrating country, but also a country where people come with the intention of staying longer or even settling permanently. Currently, the migration balance is positive. Nevertheless, 2–2.5 million Poles left and settled abroad. These are people of working and reproductive age. As a result, the fertility rate is also decreasing and we have fewer hands on the labor market – explains Prof. Elżbieta Gołata.
Data from the Central Statistical Office show that in 2017–2019 the number of Poles staying temporarily (12 months and longer) abroad was 1.6 million. In the years 2020–2022 it decreased to approximately 1.5 million. The Central Statistical Office in the "Population forecast for 2030–2060" indicates that since 2016, a positive migration balance for permanent residence has been observed in Poland, which is primarily a consequence of a large decline in the registered number of emigration. There has also been a significant increase in the number of immigrants for several years. It is mainly related to the increasing number of immigrants from countries located east of Poland (mainly Belarus, Ukraine, Armenia, Russia, Kazakhstan and India), and not the increase in the number of return migrations from Western European countries.
ZUS data shows that the number of foreigners covered by retirement and disability insurance increased from 184.2 thousand. in December 2015 to 1,127.7 thousand in December 2023. This means a more than six-fold increase, with the number of foreigners from EU countries increasing by 35% in this period, and from outside the EU as much as seven times. Between December 2022 and December 2023, the largest absolute increase in the number of insured people was recorded among citizens of Belarus (by 21.3 thousand people). In previous years, the largest increases concerned citizens of Ukraine.
– Immigration in Poland will certainly not help, maybe temporarily, but it will not compensate for the lower number of births and the decreasing population – says the chairwoman of the Committee of Demographic Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences.
All Central Statistical Office scenarios predict a systematic decline in Poland's population. In the high scenario, by 2060 it is expected to drop to 34.8 million, and in the low scenario – to 26.7 million. This would mean a decrease of 8-29% compared to 2022. By 2060, the number of children and adolescents is expected to decrease by approximately 11%. (high scenario) and by as much as half (low scenario) compared to data from 2022. In addition, the working-age population will shrink. According to ZUS calculations, per 1 thousand people of working age in 2023 there were approximately 390 people of post-working age, while in 2061 it will be 806 people and in 2080 – 839 people.
– The aging of the population in Poland is actually accelerating. This process is differentiated not only by differences in fertility rates and life expectancy, but also by the increasing internal mobility of the population. Let us note that there are only a few large cities where the population has increased, such as Warsaw or Kraków, but the population of Łódź and Poznań has decreased significantly – says prof. Elżbieta Gołata.
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How to keep young people in the countryside?
From the analysis "Demographic future of large cities in Poland" by prof. Piotr Szukalski, a demographer from the University of Łódź, shows that currently only a few cities in Poland – Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław and Gdańsk, are increasing their population thanks to favorable domestic and foreign migrations. By 2060, however, only Warsaw and Kraków will have more inhabitants than today.
– Rarely do cities with a smaller number of inhabitants manage to attract and retain young people who, after higher education, which is now common, either stay in these large cities or choose other regions where they have a more attractive job – explains the chairwoman of the Committee for Demographic Sciences of the Polish Academy of Sciences. – In the West Pomeranian Voivodeship, on the eastern edge of the country or even in the Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship, it is much more difficult to keep people in the countryside. People gravitate to centers where they have better prospects and better living conditions.
On the other hand, it is difficult to talk about the population of large cities without taking into account the inhabitants of their suburbs. Approximately 30-50% of people live in smaller towns located near the largest agglomerations. city population. Data from the Central Statistical Office also indicate that the suburbanization process will continue until 2060.
