Stable global pork production
In their quarterly report on the global pork market, USDA experts updated their expectations regarding the volume of pork production in the world and foreign trade. In 2024, they now expect global pork production to reach 116.3 million tons, which will be stable compared to 2023. A slight decline was expected in April, but it is now becoming clear that production in China is falling less sharply than initially assumed. For the country that is by far the largest producer, the USDA currently expects only a moderate decline of 2.1%. to 56.8 million tons this year. American experts forecast a slight increase of 1.7%. up to 21.2 million tonnes in the EU and +3.1%. up to 12.8 million tons in the USA. and for Brazil +2.5%. up to 4.6 million tons.
USDA expects pork imports to China to be at pre-ASF levels
According to USDA estimates, developments in foreign pork trade will likely have such an impact that pork imports to China this year will be much lower than previously expected. In the April forecast, American experts assumed that throughout 2024, the volume of imports would be similar to the previous year. In the revised July forecast, they estimate that pork imports to China will be 400,000 lower. tons, i.e. by 21%. lower than in 2023. Pork imports to China of around 1.5 million tonnes will reach the level that was common before the outbreak of ASF in China in 2018. Exporters from the EU, US and Brazil would therefore have to find alternative export destinations. These may include, for example, Japan, South Korea, Mexico or the Philippines, where the USDA anticipates increasing import requirements.
