The increase in wheat production in Spain will not compensate for the decline
The reduction in overall harvest is attributed to a sharp decline in wheat yields in France, Germany, Hungary, Poland and Romania, which has not been offset by increases in wheat production in Spain.
Weather conditions in European countries varied greatly. For example, Bulgaria received enough rainfall in winter and spring, which created optimal growing conditions. In Romania, higher than average spring temperatures negatively affected wheat, causing harvest to take place two to three weeks earlier. Similar conditions prevailed in Hungary, where spring rains led to lodging and fungal diseases in crops, but also affected the wheat harvest. Wheat in Poland had good early summer potential, but heavy rains at the beginning of harvest and the current excessive heat are likely to negatively impact final yield estimates.
Less cultivated area and lower wheat imports
Experts estimate that the total area under wheat in the EU in the 2024/2025 season will be 23.11 million hectares, compared to 23.35 million hectares in the USDA report in July and 24.3 million hectares in the 2023/2024 season.
Analysts also forecast a lower volume of grain imports to EU countries, amounting to 8.6 million tons, while exports are expected to amount to 31.6 million tons.
