Ukraine expects record soybean harvest. But who to sell it to?

Ukraina spodziewa się rekordowych zbiorów soi. Ale komu ją sprzedać?

The Ukrainian Ministry of Agrarian Policy forecasts the soybean harvest in the 2024/25 season at 5 million tons, which would be a historical record. The problem is that other large global producers – the USA, Argentina and Brazil – also expect large harvests, so there will be fierce competition for customers.

A record here, a stash there

The soybean harvest has already started and the harvest is known to be plentiful – reports Latifundist. Moreover, many growers in Ukraine expanded their crops at the expense of rapeseed. The US Department of Agriculture predicts that Ukraine will export at least 3.5 million tons this season, and the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture would like to reach the ceiling of 4 million tons. However, this will be very difficult, because global demand for soybeans will increase by only 18 million tons, and global production together with final stocks will increase by 36 million tons – experts estimate.

Meanwhile, soybean stocks from last year in Ukraine still amount to 355,000. tone. These are the effects of changes in customs and tax regulations, as a result of which exporters did not manage to sell the raw material and suffered large losses. And because they did not fulfill all their obligations, they lost the trust of foreign recipients, such as Turkey.

The problem with the meal

Ukrainian producers and intermediaries also regret that the demand for soybeans from the EU is not increasing because the number of farm animals in the EU is decreasing. Processing plants in Ukraine are also complaining because Europe does not want their meals and feed. Importers prefer to buy good quality seeds and process them at home, even though they incur higher costs. The European buyer is interested in purchasing high-protein meal, which contains 52% protein, while feed with a lower protein content is produced for the Ukrainian market.