- The process of Ukraine's accession to the EU will take many years. Assessments here vary: some indicate that the reference point is 2030, others say that it is a much later time.
- This is due to the fact that Ukraine's membership must be accepted by all EU member states. A
- – The act of admission must be ratified by the parliaments and bodies of all EU countries. And this is a time-consuming process, which may additionally be blocked by some member states, which may be related to both the policy of Ukraine and the internal situation of the EU itself – Marek Budzisz tells the Newseria Biznes agency.
The accession process is open
Ukraine applied for EU membership in February 2022, just after the Russian attack. The European Council quickly granted it the status of a candidate country in June 2022. In December 2023, EU leaders decided to open accession negotiations with Ukraine, pointing to the significant progress Ukraine has made in achieving the goals of its candidate status – despite still being attacked by Russia. This includes progress in the rule of law, judicial and administrative reform, the introduction of a legislative and institutional framework for fundamental rights, and the country's alignment of media regulations with EU audiovisual rules.
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The formal start of accession negotiations with Ukraine was inaugurated at the end of June this year after the EU Council had agreed a negotiation framework with Ukraine and Moldova a few days earlier, defining the main guidelines and principles of accession talks with both countries. This means that the so-called screening will officially begin, i.e. a review of Ukrainian law in terms of its compliance with EU regulations, which will probably last several months. As a result of this process, a report will be created, which will, among other things, formulate directions and priorities for future reforms.
As the Eastern Studies Centre notes, the start of EU accession negotiations with Ukraine became possible after Hungary withdrew from blocking them. In December last year, this country abstained in the European Council vote on opening talks and remains sceptical about Ukraine's admission to the EU.
Ukraine's accession to the EU will be a tedious process
– Ukraine's accession to the EU – even if it were not currently at war with Russia – will not be an easy process. It seems to me that today a certain bureaucratic optimism expressed by Ukrainian representatives is an exaggerated optimism – says the expert. – Ukraine's accession to the EU will be a long road, associated with very deep reforms in this country, including difficult reforms that are not carried out in a situation of an ongoing war with a high level of intensity. And this also affects the assessment of Ukraine's EU prospects. The war must end, Ukraine must have a stable situation, because this means the possibility of starting reconstruction and deep internal reforms. And as long as we do not have the prospect of ending the war, the integration process will drag on.
What are the biggest challenges facing Ukraine?
According to OSW analysts, reforms concerning, among others, basic issues, including the justice system, the functioning of democratic institutions and public administration, and public procurement will be of key importance for the pace of negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU.
In addition to changes in Ukraine, reforms in the EU itself will be equally important for the course of the negotiations.
The accession process will take many years and we do not know at all whether the Union will be prepared for the accession of such a large country as Ukraine, or whether the internal situation in the EU in a few years will allow it. Today, no one is able to predict whether the shape of EU policy will change enough to make this accession a possible process – says Marek Budzisz.
The CAP will be reformed before Ukraine's accession
– It should be assumed that even before Ukraine's accession to the Union, the European Commission will start reforming two main expenditure items in the European budget: the common agricultural policy and cohesion funds . These are the items in the Community budget that consume the largest part of the funds and the intention of the current Commission is to move away from the current system. So we will most likely be dealing with, because it is a process and difficult negotiations, the elimination of area subsidies in the form we currently know. This is treated as an element of the Union's preparation for Ukraine's accession.
Consequences of Ukraine's accession to the EU for agriculture
As the expert emphasizes, the above reforms and Ukraine's accession to the Community itself will have serious consequences for Polish agriculture, not necessarily positive ones. According to Marek Budzisz, this sector in Poland, due to the large fragmentation of the agrarian structure, is not prepared to compete on the EU market.
This is just one of the areas, because there will be relatively more potential threats, for example for the labor market. Today, about a million Ukrainians work in Poland and Kiev's intention, quite understandably, is to ensure that after the end of the war, citizens of this country return there. If these plans were to succeed, we would then be dealing with a significant problem in terms of the lack of workers in Poland, and the demographic prospects will deepen this problem in the Republic of Poland – says the expert on Russia and post-Soviet areas in Strategy and Future.
Ukraine's accession, however, is not only a challenge but also an opportunity, including the process of rebuilding the country after the war, the need for investment and appropriate communication with other EU member states.
Here, Polish entrepreneurs can play an important role, but it seems to me that a more active attitude of the government is necessary, and an attempt to resolve the conflicts that have begun to grow in recent months, I mean the conflicts between Poland and Ukraine. In my opinion, these relations have deteriorated, both during the government of Prime Minister Morawiecki and they are not improving now – assesses Marek Budzisz.
The key factor that mobilises the Ukrainian authorities to seek EU accession is not only security issues, but also the high level of public support for this process, which has remained high since 2014 (the Donbas war), and after the Russian aggression in February 2022, it reached a record level – in June this year, 77–87% of Ukrainian society supported Ukraine's accession to the EU. For Kyiv, this is currently one of the most important foreign policy goals.
The issue of Ukraine's future and its accession to the EU will be one of the topics of the ongoing Forum in Krynica, one of the institutional partners of which is Strategy and Future. As part of the thematic paths "Security and resilience" and "Geopolitics and geoeconomics", during the panels, experts discuss topics related to the war itself and its course, but also to scenarios for the future.
Source: Newseria