As analysts from ASAP Agri suggest, in the new season there will be great competition between rapeseed exporters and processors on many markets. The reason for these negotiations is the expected much lower global rapeseed harvest this season.
Less to harvest in the world
Experts from Barva Invest quoted on the website point primarily to the harvest forecasts of the world's leading producers – Ukraine, Canada and Australia. While a good harvest is expected in Canada, the effects of spring frosts are visible on Ukrainian plantations, and the effects of drought in Australia. To this should be added lower harvests in the European Union, because frosts also occurred in spring – and during the flowering period – in Germany and France.
Analysts also claim that the acreage of crops in Europe is smaller than announced because it was limited due to poor conditions during the sowing period.
Between east and west
As a result, seeds from the new harvest should enjoy high demand, both from the processing industry and from exporters who will want to make money on deliveries to deficit countries. The harvest in Ukraine and the supply of seeds in the western EU will certainly have the greatest impact on our market.
USDA predicts that due to lower yields, Ukrainian rapeseed processing will decrease from 1 million tonnes in 2023/24 to 0.4 million tonnes in 2024/25. However, this does not mean that the harvest will be so dramatically low, but rather that Ukrainian rapeseed will mainly be exported to the EU due to high prices and high demand.
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