– As Mark Twain said – "rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated". Despite turbulent days on the market, there is no indication of a global crisis coming. We are in a period of great reshuffle and investors are naturally extremely nervous. They have accumulated huge profits during 15 years of low interest rates and now they are afraid to lose them. Risks are everywhere – inflation, wars, recession, falling real estate prices or global warming – explains Dominik Janes, Managing Partner at Unity Group.
A time of turbulence for business
According to the expert, by the end of 2024 we can expect high market volatility, but not a global crash.
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In this context, the question arises whether the market has already reached its limits in the current cycle, partly driven by expectations regarding AI?
– We may be experiencing the first burst of the NVIDIA bubble and companies producing devices for data centers. However, a lot will still happen in the AI topic itself, we are waiting for further scientific and technological breakthroughs. The potential here is enormous, without any exaggeration it can be assumed that it is the largest in the history of mankind. AI will significantly change the market and our lives, but today it is difficult to predict who will be the main winner, but there are many candidates for losers… Returning to market fundamentals – we are only at the very beginning of the cycle of lowering interest rates, so in the medium term we should rather expect further increases preceded by a period of violent turbulence in the coming months – explains Dominik Janes.
Does Apple stock seller Warren Buffet know more?
– Probably yes. He knows the richest people in the world, and they not only have wider access to information, but often create reality themselves. Secondly, he is probably the most famous investor in the world. However, we cannot automatically conclude that Buffett's accumulation of cash means that the world is on the verge of a recession. There were certainly many reasons. It is possible that he finally stopped believing in Apple and wanted to take profits. He could have concluded that in the face of the prospects of falling interest rates, government bonds are a much safer and potentially quite profitable asset. However, the main reason could have been collecting "ammunition" due to the high volatility on the markets expected in the coming months and the change of many paradigms that have persisted for decades. And this means that there will also be opportunities for attractive acquisitions and other investments that require high liquidity . In 2008, Berkshire Hathaway had such liquidity and saved Swiss Re from bankruptcy, earning a lot of money in the process. Similar opportunities will certainly appear now. After all, it was Buffett who said: "The stock market is a very efficient tool for transferring money from the impatient to the patient," says the Unity Group expert.
What about Polish trade and e-commerce?
The global economy is a set of interconnected vessels, and Poland has become an integral part of it over the last 30 years. Every slowdown in the global market therefore has its consequences in our country as well.
The main recipient of our exports remains Germany, followed by the Czech Republic, France, Great Britain, Italy and the Netherlands, although we still export less to all of these countries combined than to Germany. The situation in Germany therefore strongly influences the situation in Poland, and Germany as an export country is strongly dependent on the condition of the global economy.
– However, we have other growth engines – domestic consumption and direct investment. Unemployment in Poland remains low, so we should not expect a significant slowdown in retail trade. The prospects for e-commerce and digital sales channels are not changing – in the coming years we will observe a continuous increase in online sales – both in the B2C and B2B areas. This growth will be stimulated by the further evolution of consumer behavior, the opening of new sales channels, the search for cost optimization and, ultimately, very fierce competition for customers. There is no turning back from the digitalization of sales – sums up Dominik Janes.
AI drives markets
Jerzy Kozyra, CEO at Ambiscale, also believes that stock market crashes increase uncertainty on the financial market and make investors more cautious.
– This may result in a suspension of decisions on making further investments. If the lower inflow of investment outlays continues, the development of sectors such as technology and innovation will slow down. The drop in consumer and investor confidence may lead to a decrease in consumer spending and investments, which will directly affect trade turnover and the dynamics of online sales – he points out.
The expert emphasizes that AI and automation technologies are an important driver of growth in many sectors, including the stock market.
– The current situation on the stock exchange reflects the fact that the AI-driven market is slowing down. After great enthusiasm and investment in artificial intelligence, a market correction is taking place. Energy factors, among others, pose a challenge, influencing costs, the environment, and the pace of technology implementation. The long-term market potential of AI is huge. We are still at an early stage of development of artificial intelligence, and companies still face many opportunities to implement AI, such as increasing user engagement on e-commerce sites or custom tools that save employees' time – explains Jerzy Kozyra.
