- Lower yields year to year in many regions of the country do not translate into purchasing prices. This is already visible in the case of rapeseed.
- The situation in the case of cereals is also bad. It is difficult to estimate the yield yet, but purchase offers are not acceptable.
Rapeseed yields are low and prices are also falling
Prices during harvest are always surprising. They seem to have their own rules and forecasts do not necessarily come true. There are no rigid rules according to which we can predict what will happen on the market. However, it is confirmed that even lower yields do not translate into purchasing prices.
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What grain prices are forecast? Thorough analysis
Most regions of the country report lower rapeseed yields year to year. The situation is poor in regions with large areas of rapeseed – Lower Silesia and the Opole region, where the vast majority of rapeseed has already been harvested from the fields. Information from Greater Poland also reports lower yields. A certain reduction in yield results also applies to central Poland and Mazovia. Farmers from the Podlasie and Warmian-Masurian Voivodeships also mention low yields. We will have to wait for the full results. Nevertheless, it can already be said that the results are weaker than expected. As the harvest progresses, it turns out that we can say the same about prices.
The 2024 rapeseed harvest started with some price optimism. Purchase prices exceeded PLN 2,000/t, and after a few days they fluctuated between PLN 2,150 and 2,180/t. So it was better than before the harvest began. And although these prices are slightly below expectations – considering the high costs of cultivation – not everyone was able to take advantage of such offers. The offers were quickly adjusted, and locally rapeseed is now priced below PLN 2,000/t. What's more, price declines went hand in hand with information from the fields about low (or lower than last year) yields. So there is no yield and no price. With a yield of 2.5 t/ha, the sales revenue is at most able to cover the costs. Yet you don't have to look long to find much lower results, even below 2 t/ha (especially in the southwest, where rapeseed suffered the most).
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Large drops in oil prices worldwide
Poland is not such a small rapeseed market
The situation is therefore strange, because a smaller amount of raw material from the new harvest is entering the market than expected, and at the same time the goods are getting cheaper. And lower yields do not only concern Poland, as information about weaker results also comes from other European countries. Agreed, we are participants of the global market and in this respect prices also depend on events in the world and crops, even overseas. It is said that Poland is not a significant market. But also without exaggeration. Together with France and Germany, Poland is one of the largest rapeseed producers in the European Union. The share in EU rapeseed production is almost 20%. Is that not enough? Of course, on a global scale these will not be large amounts, but in the EU perspective they will be. These will not be small quantities also in relation to continental production, which also includes Russia and Ukraine. So if one of the leading players in terms of production in the EU has no influence on the price, something is wrong. Logic says that lower yields in Poland, regardless of the global situation, should result in at least slightly higher rapeseed prices.
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USDA: Lower July forecast for global oilseed production
The situation with cereals is not interesting
The situation is not good also with regard to cereals. In the southern and western regions of the country, a lot of wheat had already been mown before the rains. The harvest is not great, in many areas it is much worse than last year. Meanwhile, grain prices are low. We observe a large range in the case of wheat. In the case of fodder, valuations range from PLN 680 to PLN 760/t, with the most common offers being around PLN 700 to PLN 720/t. Consumer wheat is valued at PLN 750 – 900/t, and the most frequently occurring prices are in the range of PLN 810 – 850/t. Unfortunately, higher rates appear rarely and apply to wheat with the highest parameters. And, contrary to appearances, this is not easy at all. It turns out that many wheat plantations, even those with low yields, where we usually have high protein, do not "meet" the consumption parameters. It's not even worth mentioning the prices of other cereals. For example, triticale costs PLN 590-660/t, and rye in some cases is valued at less than PLN 520/t.
