Situation on the world market in the 2024/2025 season
As KOWR reports at the beginning, the global grain harvest in the 2024/2025 season, according to the June USDA forecast, may be record-breaking and amount to 2.3 billion tons, 0.5% higher than in the 2023/2024 season. Due to the expected increase in global consumption (to 2.31 billion tons from 2.29 billion tons in the 2023/2024 season), grain stocks at the end of the 2024/2025 season may decrease by 1.5%, to nearly 590 million tons.
In the case of wheat, the global harvest in the 2024/2025 season may amount to nearly 791 million tons compared to 788 million tons in the previous season (an increase of 0.4%). An increase in harvest is expected in most major wheat producing regions, while a decline in Europe is expected due to unfavorable weather conditions (excessive rainfall during the sowing period, spring frosts and drought).
– Taking into account the slight increase in the global wheat harvest in the 2024/2025 season, with an estimated slight reduction in demand (from 799 million tons to 798 million tons), global stocks of this grain at the end of the season will probably decrease by 3%, to 252 million tons – says KOWR in an analysis sent to farmer.pl.
In relation to the European Union market, in the 2024/2025 season, the grain harvest will amount to 278 million tons, 3% higher than in the previous season. The increase in cereal production in the EU assumed in the forecast will be the result of increased harvests of corn (by 6%, to 65 million tons), barley (by 13%, to nearly 54 million tons) and oats (by 20%, to 7 million tons). Only the wheat harvest is likely to decline by 3%, to 130.5 million tonnes.
USDA estimates that in Russia the grain harvest in the 2024/2025 season will probably decline by 8%, to 123 million tons (including wheat to 83 million tons, a decline of 9%, and corn – to 15 million tons, a decline of 7% ). Despite the decline in grain harvests, grain exports will continue to pose significant competition on the international market, especially for EU suppliers. Grain exports from Russia in the 2024/2025 season are forecast at 58 million tons, 12% lower. Wheat exports may decline by 11%, to 48 million tonnes (58% of the harvest), and corn exports – by 17%, to 5 million tonnes (32% of the harvest). In the 2024/2025 season, Russia is likely to remain the world's largest wheat exporter, accounting for nearly a quarter of all global wheat exports.
In the 2024/2025 season, the grain harvest in Ukraine, according to the USDA forecast, will amount to 53 million tons and will be 14% lower than in the previous season . Wheat harvests may decline by 15%, to 19.5 million tons, and corn harvests – by 11%, to nearly 28 million tons. Despite the decline in harvests, Ukraine will remain an important grain exporter. Grain exports from Ukraine in the 2024/2025 season may amount to 40 million tons, 14% lower . Corn exports may decline by 6%, to 24.5 million tons, i.e. 88% of the Ukrainian corn harvest and 13% of global exports of this grain. In the case of wheat, exports will probably decline by 28%, to 13 million tons, i.e. 67% of the Ukrainian wheat harvest and 6% of global wheat exports.
Current situation on the domestic market
– The domestic grain market is determined by unfavorable agro-meteorological conditions, which most likely had a negative impact on yields and, consequently, on this year's grain harvest – emphasizes KOWR in the information.
According to the latest IUNG data, in the period from May 1 to June 30, 2024, agricultural drought occurred in all 16 voivodeships in Poland. During the drought, spring cereals suffered the most because they did not yet have a well-developed root system at the time of emergence and shooting. In Mazovia and Podlasie, drought affected 64% and 60% of spring cereal crops, respectively. In Warmia and Mazury (41% of crops), in the voivodeship Łódź Voivodeship (40%), and the Voivodeship Kuyavian-Pomeranian Voivodeship (36%).
Drought was also recorded in winter cereal crops. Most crops affected by drought were in the province. Masovian Voivodeship (57%), Podlaskie Voivodeship (54%), Warmian-Masurian Voivodeship (35%) and Łódź Voivodeship (33%).
Corn crops in 15 voivodeships also suffered. According to IUNG, most corn crops affected by drought were recorded in the province. Podlaskie (32%), Masovia (30%) and Warmian-Masurian (18%). It is estimated that currently water resources in the soil, especially in the root zone, are insufficient to cover the needs of corn – notes KOWR.
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We know when the drought application will be launched this year
Harvest progress in Poland in the first week of July this year.
According to KOWR analysts, the presented drought conditions resulted in this year's grain harvest starting earlier than last year.
The factors that influenced the earlier start of harvest were spring frosts and a long period of water deficit resulting from the lack of precipitation, especially in May and June this year.
The winter barley harvest is underway in the country. However, harvesting works are slowed down by locally occurring showers, mainly stormy at times . The winter barley harvest has started in most voivodeships, in the first week of July this year. the most advanced harvests were recorded in the southwestern part of the country, especially in the province. Opole and Lubuskie, and less in the Wielkopolskie, Masovian, Łódź, Świętokrzyskie and Podlaskie voivodeships.
In most voivodeships, collection points are prepared to receive grain, but due to the limited progress of the harvest, deliveries have so far been limited. The first supplies of winter barley for purchase were recorded in the province. Podlasie and Greater Poland.
– The lower quality of grain than last year may be due to the fact that agricultural producers started mowing the fields most affected by drought. Nevertheless, there are growing concerns among farmers about the amount of this year's grain yields – emphasizes KOWR in the analysis.
He adds that, however , there are regions of Poland, e.g. the south-east and north-east, where good harvests of winter cereals are expected.
Corn harvest will not take place until autumn, so the harvest will depend on agrometeorological conditions in the later growing season.
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Rapeseed is falling poorly. There are no revelations, the yields are low
Price trends on the Matif exchange in Paris
– The price of consumer wheat in the next futures contract for September this year. (September '24) on the MATIF exchange in the quotation of July 8, 2024 was EUR 221.25/ton compared to EUR 228.25/ton in the quotation of July 5, 2024 (a decrease of 3.1%). At the same time, the price of this grain was 3.9% lower compared to the price recorded a week ago, i.e. July 1, 2024 (EUR 230.25/t) – we read in the information prepared by KOWR.
On the MATIF exchange , in the quotation of July 8, 2024, the price of corn in the next futures contract (for August 2024 – August'24) was EUR 213.25/t and was 0.8% lower than in the quotation of July 5, 2024 r. (EUR 215.00/t). However, the price of corn on the MATIF exchange was 1.4% higher than the price obtained a week ago, i.e. on July 1, 2024 (EUR 210.25/t).
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Harvest 2024. Rapeseed prices are starting to decline, but there are also increases
