As the bank's specialists remind us, the market passed the turning point of the "pig cycle" in the third quarter of last year. Therefore, after taking into account seasonal factors, further declines in pig prices are expected. The breakthrough is expected to take place at the turn of December and January. After this period, prices of fattened pigs should start to recover.
Good profitability of breeding will increase the supply of pork
Analysts forecast that improved profitability of pig breeding (resulting primarily from cheaper feed grains) will lead to an increased supply of live pigs on the market. After passing the turning point, which, as mentioned, should fall at the turn of the year, there should be a recovery, additionally supported by an increase in the purchasing power of households.
The main risk factors for the adopted scenario are the further spread of ASF in Europe and the pace of reconstruction of the pig population in Europe.
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We are still observing minimal price increases for fattened pigs on the market
Forecasts of fattening pig prices
According to Credit Agticole analysts, after taking into account global and local factors, the expected price of fattened pigs at the end of 2024 will be approximately PLN 6.00 per kilogram, and at the end of 2025 fattened pigs will cost approximately PLN 7.10 per kilogram.
