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The second half of 2024 with the hope that the situation in the dairy industry will improve

Druga połowa 2024 r. z nadzieją na poprawę sytuacji w mleczarstwie

– The situation on the milk market began to reverse in 2Q24. After many months of annual declines, in May the FAO dairy product price index was already 3.7% higher. y/y, and in June the annual dynamics amounted to 6.5%. – informs Mariusz Dziwulski.

This situation is mainly due to the price of butter, which increased by 37% in June. on an annual basis. Prices for this product worldwide have reached their highest level in two years. The low dynamics of milk production by major exporters, which has been ongoing for many months, limits the growth of global supply, which is an important factor in the process of price recovery.

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– Demand conditions are generally favorable for the market. On the one hand, the demand for some dairy products, including cheese and butter, is gradually increasing along with the growing purchasing power of consumers, driven by high wage dynamics. This also applies to the domestic market. On the other hand, export demand for milk powders is still weak, including: from China, where milk production is increasing – adds the analyst.

Less demand from China

It turns out that in the first 5 months of 2024, China reduced its purchases of SMP by more than 1/3, and according to the Central Statistical Office, the value of Polish exports of dairy products to the "Middle Kingdom" in the period January-April '24 decreased by almost half on an annual basis.

– It can be estimated that the increase in dairy product prices observed since 2Q24 will be reflected in domestic milk purchase prices in the coming months. An additional argument is the fact that the financial situation of the dairy industry is slowly starting to stabilize after a relatively unfavorable 2023, which is confirmed by company data for 1Q24. It cannot be ruled out that the annual dynamics of purchase prices at the end of the year will reach a positive level, after the y/y declines observed in the first half of 2024, summarizes Dziwulski.

The largest decline in dairy product prices this year

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The largest decline in dairy product prices this year

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