
The Central Statistical Office reported that prices of consumer goods and services in July 2024 increased by 4.2 percent compared to the same month of the previous year, with an increase in the prices of services by 6.2 percent and goods by 3.5 percent. Compared to the previous month, prices of goods and services increased by 1.4 percent – including goods by 1.6 percent and services by 1.1 percent.
There is no greater chance of inflation falling within the NBP inflation target range
"There is no greater chance of inflation falling to the NBP inflation target range by the end of the year, and we will even be close to price increases of 5 percent. Taking into account today's data on surprisingly high GDP growth, the vision of interest rate cuts has definitely been pushed back," assessed Mariusz Zielonka, economic expert of the Lewiatan Confederation, in a commentary on the GUS data.
In his opinion, the acceleration of inflation beyond the upper limit of the NBP inflation target (i.e. 3.5%) is mainly due to the rising prices of electricity and gas. He said that energy prices went up by almost 20% within a month and 18.5% year-on-year, while in the case of gas the increases amounted to over 16% MoM and 16.1% YoY, respectively.
The expert also pointed to the increase in food prices, which exceeds 3 percent on an annual basis. "However, on a one-month scale, we can see that the return of 5 percent VAT on some food products, spread over installments, has already ended," the expert said.