The report is prepared substantively by Arkadiusz Zalewski from IERiGŻ, who has commented on the fertilizer market many times on our website. This time, he takes into account specific figures regarding the global fertilizer market. There's a lot going on there. It's worth taking a look at these results.
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Zalewski: We have record exports of nitrogen fertilizers
Fertilizer market in the world
– The world production of the main fertilizer ingredients (ammonia, phosphates and potassium chloride) in 2022 amounted to over 250 million tonnes per pure ingredient and compared to the previous year decreased by 3.5%. The decline in production in 2022 was caused by, among others: rising costs of fertilizer production due to high prices of natural gas and coal, export restrictions introduced by Russia and China, difficulties in transporting fertilizers by sea, and international sanctions imposed on Belarus and Russia due to aggression against Ukraine. A different situation occurred in 2023. According to the estimates of the International Fertilizer Association (IFA), the production of the main fertilizer ingredients was higher compared to the previous year, with the increase in production mainly related to potassium chloride – we read in the report.
Interestingly, as Zalewski informs, the global production of urea, the most popular nitrogen fertilizer, increased in 2022 by 2.3% to 84.6 million tonnes of pure ingredient. Changes in the production of this fertilizer in individual regions varied. In Western and Central Europe, production decreased by almost 32%, while in Latin America production increased by 25.7%, in South Asia by 9.5% and in Western Asia by 5.1%.
In turn, the production of ammonia, an intermediate product used to produce nitrogen fertilizers, decreased in 2022 compared to the previous year by 1.2% to just over 150 million tonnes per pure ingredient.
Source: IERiGŻ
What about other raw materials? – Global phosphate rock extraction in 2022 decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous year, to less than 63 million tonnes of the pure ingredient. The decline in production was caused by lower extraction of raw materials, mainly from African countries and North America. In 2023, global production capacity for phosphate rock was estimated at 300 million tonnes in product weight, 11.9% more than in 2020. According to forecasts, in 2026 the production capacity will be increased to almost 324 million tons – we read in the IERiGŻ report.
There is also data on potash fertilizers.
– In 2022, compared to the previous year, the extraction of potassium salt (potassium chloride) decreased by 16.1% to just over 37 million tonnes per pure ingredient. The decline in production concerned mainly the region of Eastern Europe and Central Asia (i.e. mainly Belarus and Russia). The decline in production in these countries resulted primarily from a significant reduction in exports from Belarus and Russia in connection with the imposed sanctions. The share of international trade in global potassium salt extraction amounted to 73.6% compared to 78.9% a year earlier. The relatively large importance of international trade in potassium salt results from the fact that its extraction is concentrated primarily outside the regions of greatest demand. In 2023, the global production capacity for this raw material, according to IFA, was estimated at approximately 110 million tonnes in product weight, i.e. almost the same as in 2020. According to forecasts, in 2026 the production potential will be increased to over 114 million tons – according to the report "Market of agricultural inputs – status and prospects".
Source: IERiGŻ 
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Is the European fertilizer industry already becoming dependent on Russia?
Consumption of mineral fertilizers in the world
Arkadiusz Zalewski also looked at the consumption of fertilizers; after a noticeable increase on a global scale, which was observed in the 2020/2021 season, in the next season (2021/2022) the consumption of fertilizers decreased by 3.6% (about 7 million tons) to 195 million t expressed as pure ingredient.
In the next season, which we also noticed in Poland, the consumption dropped even more.
– In the 2022/2023 season under the influence of, among others, Due to the deteriorating situation on basic agricultural markets, the decline in global consumption of mineral fertilizers has deepened even further. The consumption of mineral fertilizers decreased by another 4.2% (by approximately 8 million tons) to 187 million tons of the pure ingredient. The total decrease in the consumption of mineral fertilizers in the 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 seasons was almost 8%, Zalewski presented.
The expert also gave forecasts. – According to IFA forecasts, global fertilizer consumption, among others, under the influence of improved economic profitability of their use, it will increase in the 2023/2024 season by 2.6% to 192 million tons of pure ingredient, and in the 2024/2025 season by another 2% to 195 million tons, i.e. to the level observed in the 2021/2022 marketing year – said the representative of the Institute.
Who uses the most fertilizers? I don't think anyone is surprised that China. Next on the podium are India and Brazil, and in fourth place – the USA. – Within the EU, the most mineral fertilizers were used in France – approximately 2.5 million tonnes per pure ingredient, which accounted for 1.3% of global consumption. Poland's share was 0.9%, Arkadiusz Zalewski reported.
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President of Grupa Azoty: We already have fertilizer price lists
Prices of mineral fertilizers in the world?
According to the report, in 2023, the average annual prices of mineral fertilizers in world trade decreased by an average of 34.9% compared to the previous year. For comparison, in 2022 the y/y price increase was almost 55%, while in 2022 prices more than doubled.
– In the first months of 2024, the downward trend in fertilizer prices in global trade continued. However, according to the World Bank's forecasts (from April 2024), the pace of decline in fertilizer prices throughout 2024 will be slower than a year earlier. According to these forecasts, prices in 2024 will decrease on average by 21.7% y/y, and in 2025 by another 6.1%. In 2024, the average annual price of urea will decrease to USD 350/t, triple superphosphate to USD 450/t, and potassium chloride to USD 300/t. In turn, the price of phosphate rock, a raw material for the production of phosphate fertilizers, will decrease from USD 322/t in 2023 to USD 165 per tonne – we read in data from the Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics.
