
Prices will likely continue to rise
Agricultural land prices in the Netherlands are likely to continue their upward trend in the coming years. This is what Rabobank's current forecast assumes. Experts estimate that the average purchase price of agricultural land in the first quarter of 2024 will be PLN 79,000. euro/ha. That's 11 thousand. euro/ha, i.e. over 16%. more than in the first quarter of 2021.
However, given the exceptionally high inflation, experts assess this growth to be worse, especially in 2022. However, experts expect that agricultural land prices will continue to rise over the next twelve months. The results of a survey conducted among approximately 50 intermediaries selling agricultural land indicate an increase in prices by up to 5%.
Non-farmers pay more
In the medium term, i.e. three years, land buyers will probably have to put even more money on the table. According to Rabobank, the supply of land is unlikely to increase, while demand – especially from non-agricultural customers – is expected to remain stable.
These stakeholders raised prices because they could pay at least as much or even more than farmers. Important influencing factors are increasing urbanization and the designation of nature reserves. The conclusion is that by 2030 there will be an additional annual non-agricultural land demand of at least approximately 8,900 hectares. This would mean that the loss of land in relation to the remaining agricultural land in the Netherlands would be three times as intense as in Germany.
More for nature and forest
Analysts estimate that the current demand for land for additional suburban residential areas, industry and infrastructure in the Netherlands is up to 80,000. hectares. The new Dutch government plans to introduce a tax on undeveloped land with a residential function designated in the local plan to create incentives for housing construction. However, these taxes are unlikely to have any impact on non-agricultural buyers being more willing to pay farmers.
Rabobank also expects that more land will be used for nature and forestry purposes in the future, after the area decreased in favor of built-up areas between 2013 and 2022. One of the reasons for reversing this trend is the national forest strategy. It assumes that in the years 2020–2030, out of 37 thousand ha, an additional forest will be planted.
Agricultural land in the EU is more expensive only in Malta
Moreover, in accordance with the Dutch "Nature Pact" aimed at implementing EU requirements, approximately 34,000 are to be created by the end of 2027. ha of natural areas compared to 2022. According to Rabobank, most of the land needed for this will probably be withdrawn from agriculture.
According to the European Union's Statistical Office (Eurostat), in 2022, agricultural land in the Netherlands cost on average around EUR 80,000/ha. Compared to other EU countries, land was then more expensive only in Malta.