Deep correction in soybean prices
The correction in oil prices on global markets is continuing. The declines have been going on for a month now. During this time, U.S. soybeans lost most of the prior three-month price gain. Canadian canola "gave up" slightly more than half of the increase. The smallest loss was recorded by rapeseed on the Paris stock exchange – approximately 1/3 of the previous increases.
It seems that the reason for the deep downward correction in soybean prices is the forecasted record level of global production in the coming season (according to the USDA, a 6.7% y/y increase compared to the also record harvest in the current season). Previous price increases were caused by expectations of negative effects of weather anomalies, which – as it turned out in the last June USDA report – did not affect forecasts of global soybean production.
Forecasts of lower rapeseed harvests in the EU and Ukraine are inhibiting price declines
A strong downward correction in soybean prices translated into a decline in rapeseed prices, but in this case the scope of the correction is much smaller. The smaller scope of adjustment of rapeseed prices on MATIF can be explained by a significant decrease in forecasts for the harvest of these seeds in the EU (according to USDA by 1.25 million tonnes – 6.3%) and in Ukraine (by 1.05 million tonnes – 22.1%). ), which is a significant supplier of raw material to the EU.
read more
France expects smaller barley and rapeseed harvests
Prices of rapeseed in the August delivery contract on the Paris Stock Exchange fell by 0.3 percent on Friday. and amounted to EUR 462.00/t (PLN 2,002/t) and were by 1.5%. lower than last year. Over the last week, the prices decreased by 1.3%.
American soybeans rose 0.5% on Friday. and cost USD 426.40/t. On a y/y basis, the price of soybeans dropped by 22.7%, while for the week it decreased by 1.6%. Canadian canola prices increased by 1.1%. and amounted to 606.10 CAD/t, and over the last year they decreased by 17.4%. On a weekly basis, canola prices increased by 0.1%.
read more
DRV: rainfall has no impact on harvest volumes in Germany
Matif rapeseed, August contract – the price fell by 0.32% on Friday. (EUR 462.00/t – PLN 2,002/t).
Quotations of August rapeseed futures contracts expressed in PLN are presented in the chart below:
In the continuation chart below of rapeseed contracts listed on Matif, the long-term downtrend dominates, the medium-term is up and the short-term is up.
CBOT soybeans, July contract – the price increased by 0.45% on Friday. ($426.40/t- PLN 1,728/t).
read more
Power Field: energy production cannot displace food production
On the Chicago stock exchange, the soybean market is dominated by an upward trend – long-term, medium-term is upward, short-term is upward.
Canola WCE, July contract – price increased by 1.12%. (CAD 606.10/t – PLN 1,704/t).
In Winnipeg, canola is dominated by a long-term downward trend, a medium-term upward trend and a short-term upward trend.
