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The coming months will bring a slight decline in milk purchase prices

Najbliższe miesiące przyniosą łagodny spadek cen skupu mleka

Divergent price trends on the milk market

In recent months, divergent trends have been observed on the global milk market, as analysts from Credit Agricole point out in the latest AGROmapa.

As analysts point out, on the one hand, the price of butter continues to increase quite strongly, on the other hand, the prices of skimmed milk powder are decreasing. At the same time, prices of cheese and whole milk powder remain relatively stable.

As a result, there was a further increase in the ratio of milk fat and protein prices, reflected in the difference between the prices of butter and skimmed milk powder, indicating a deepening internal imbalance in this market, as indicated by the authors of the report.

"We believe that the current market price situation is due to two opposing factors: the still limited supply of milk among the world's main exporters of dairy products and the continuing weakened global demand for dairy products," the analysts explain.

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High profitability supports the increase in milk production

As analysts point out, the market's attention is currently focused on the Northern Hemisphere, where the EU and the USA are in the decisive phase of the milk season. In their scenario, analysts assume an increase in milk supply from these directions in the coming months, which is supported by the continued high profitability of milk production. However, this assessment may change in the event of a possible deterioration of agrometeorological conditions.

“However, we expect that by the end of this year. will bring a reduction in milk supply due to the seasonal decline in production in the Northern Hemisphere with no prospects for a strong increase in milk production in the Southern Hemisphere (in New Zealand, Australia and Argentina)," analysts note.

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The first signs of recovery in demand on the global milk market?

The creators of agromap point out that in recent months there have been mixed signals regarding demand on the global milk market.

“On the one hand, the volume of foreign sales of global exporters of dairy products (EU, Great Britain, New Zealand, USA, Australia and Argentina) expressed in milk equivalent increased by 9.5% in January-February 2024. y/y. On the other hand, imports from the largest importers decreased by 1.7 percent during this time. y/y, with purchases from China decreasing by as much as 8.3%. However, we believe that at the end of this year global demand for dairy products will increase, which will be supported by the expected revival of activity in the global economy," the authors of the report indicate.

At the turn of the third and fourth quarter, milk purchase prices will start to increase

Analysts from Credit Agricole maintain their assessment that a stronger increase in prices on the global milk market will only occur at the turn of the third and fourth quarter of this year, which will be supported by the revival of demand for dairy products, supported by, among others, by stronger demand in Europe.

The main risk factor for such a scenario is the development of agrometeorological conditions among key exporters of dairy products in the coming months.

The coming months will bring a slight decline in milk purchase prices

The authors of the analysis expect that the milk purchase price in Poland will follow a mild downward trend in the coming months, and the trend will be reversed at the turn of the third and fourth quarter.

Forecast of milk purchase prices at the end of 2024 and 2025.

Compared to the previous spring forecast, milk purchase prices in Poland estimated at the end of 2024 increased by PLN 10/hl, while those estimated at the end of 2025 decreased by PLN 10/hl.

"We forecast that at the end of 2024, the milk purchase price in Poland will be approximately PLN 220/hl, and at the end of 2025, approximately PLN 230/hl," say economists from Crédit Agricole.

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