Some people are holding back and are watching the economic situation develop further. In the above-mentioned period, the number of applications for the resumption of self-employed persons increased by almost 6%. According to experts, issues such as better economic conditions and improved consumer sentiment contributed to this. In addition, experts add that the data should be viewed somewhat more broadly. In the first half of 2024, almost 100,000 such companies were liquidated, but at the same time over 150,000 were established. Therefore, the final balance does not look bad at all.
In the first half of 2024, the CEIDG register received 150.8 thousand applications for setting up a sole proprietorship.
According to data provided by the Ministry of Development and Technology (MRiT), in the entire first half of 2024, 150.8 thousand applications for establishing a sole proprietorship were submitted to the CEIDG register. This is 3.3% less than in the same period last year, when there were 155.9 thousand such cases. As Łukasz Goszczyński, legal counsel and restructuring advisor from the GKPG Commercial Law Firm, notes, in the first quarter of this year alone, the decrease in the number of applications submitted to CEIDG for opening a sole proprietorship amounted to over 6% y/y. Therefore, looking at the entire half-year, it is clear that the situation is slowly improving. However, the current state is below the expectations of the broadly understood market.
– There is nothing special or surprising in the current data. The number of self-employed persons registered in the first half of this year is correlated with the rate of economic growth, i.e. the annual growth rate of real GDP. It can be treated as an indicator of the economic situation. This thesis is supported by economic theory, as well as common sense. When an economic entity expects an increase in demand and sees this as an opportunity to increase profits, it increases its activity – comments Dr. Konrad Walczyk from the Institute of Public Finance and deputy director of the Institute of Economic Development of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH).
As Adrian Parol, legal adviser and restructuring consultant, argues, the drop in the number of applications in the first half of the year may be related to Poles' concerns about the rising costs of running a business, as well as balancing finances from the revenue and cost side. As a result, some people have refrained from establishing a sole proprietorship and are watching the further development of the economic situation. The conditions for running a business have certainly not worsened, but they have not improved significantly either.
For many years now, the market has also shown that both the establishment and liquidation of a sole proprietorship look more or less similar.
– In my opinion, there has always been a great need in our society to run your own business, especially in its simplest form. For many years, the market has also shown that both the establishment and liquidation of self-employed entities look more or less similar. However, it is interesting that in the first half of 2024, nearly 100,000 such companies were liquidated, but at the same time over 150,000 were established. So this final balance does not look bad at all. Some companies are liquidated, and others are established in their place – adds attorney Łukasz Goszczyński.
As Dr. Walczyk points out, the Central Statistical Office publishes data on new registrations of enterprises in all legal forms by section, without detailed information on sole proprietorships. In recent years, an average of 22.3% of new registrations were financial, insurance, real estate and administration services, and services related to professional, scientific and technical activities. In turn, 19.9% covered construction, 16.5% – trade, 15.2% – other services excluding public administration. According to the expert, it can be assumed that sole proprietorships are concentrated in those sections with a significant share in the number of new registrations. In the last three years, sole proprietorships accounted for an average of 83% of newly registered entities.
Moreover, according to the data from the ministry, in the first six months of this year, 102.6 thousand applications for the renewal of JDG were submitted to the CEIDG register. This is 5.9% more than in the same period last year, when there were 96.9 thousand. – Here, in turn, it can be indicated that in the first quarter of this year, there was over 9% more activity of this type than a year earlier. Therefore, it is clear that in this particular matter, the motivation of entrepreneurs has slightly decreased. However, for the economy, it is basically a small difference – adds the expert from the GKPG Commercial Law Firm.
– In my opinion, the above increase results from the improvement in trade conditions and better consumer sentiment. These are the main factors encouraging the suspension of self-employed persons. Submitting an application for the suspension of business does not have to end with the liquidation of the business. It is often an action aimed at reducing the costs incurred, mainly with ZUS contributions – emphasizes attorney Adrian Parol.
The issue of health insurance premiums
In turn, the GKPG expert points out that we still do not have a solution to the health insurance premium. In addition, inflation is starting to accelerate again. Taking all this into account, attorney Goszczyński predicts that the situation regarding the resumption of JDG may remain unchanged, unless something sudden happens on the market. However, there is also a risk that it will worsen. Although economists predict an acceleration in economic growth, in the lawyer's opinion, this will not affect the resumption of sole proprietorships.
– Economists and economic participants mostly expect that economic growth in Poland will accelerate in the next few years. An increase in the number of new self-employed persons (JDG) registrations should also be forecasted. I am talking about the trend and its direction, not about a constant, and even more so about a uniform increase from quarter to quarter – emphasizes Dr. Konrad Walczyk from the Institute of Public Finance.
Meanwhile, attorney Adrian Parol reminds us that between the first half of last year and the first half of this year, there was a change of government. The previous one surprised with the rapid introduction of new regulations, which meant uncertainty and even chaos for many entrepreneurs. The actions of the current team are more predictable, which may also be important in the context of opening and resuming sole proprietorships. Entrepreneurs want to function in a legal environment that does not change from day to day. As the expert predicts, in the second half of this year there should be more new and reopened businesses, but without any frenzy. This may be due to, among other things, the investments announced by the government, especially those related to the KPO.
