Improving weather translates into declines in grain prices
Improving weather conditions in several key producers and exporters of wheat (USA, Canada, Russia) translates into higher production expectations and strong price declines on the stock exchanges. Just a few weeks ago, grain prices were rising significantly in response to difficult weather conditions – mainly in Russia, the EU and the USA.
Improved weather conditions in the USA (spring wheat) and a good harvest of winter wheat translate into a strong correction of wheat prices on CBoT, which has already reached ¾ of the price increase from March-May this year. (continuation chart). In turn, worse prospects for wheat production in the EU and Ukraine limit the pace of declines in wheat prices on the Paris stock exchange. In the same period as quotations on CBoT, wheat on MATIF gave back approximately ½ of its previous increases (continuation chart).
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Wheat in the September delivery contract on MATIF fell by 1.0% on Friday. and cost EUR 224.50/t (PLN 973/t), and y/y prices dropped by 6.8%. During the week, the price dropped by 5.2%. The price of corn on the Paris Stock Exchange in the August contract increased by 0.2%. and amounted to EUR 208.50/t (PLN 903/t), and over the last year it decreased by 13.9%. On a weekly basis, prices decreased by 4.1%.
Wheat on CBoT fell by 8.4% for a week.
Wheat on CBoT in the July contract fell by 2.0% on Friday. and cost USD 206.31/t. On a y/y basis, quotations decreased by 24.0%. For a week, the price dropped by 8.4%. The price of corn in the July delivery contract on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell by 1.1%. and amounted to USD 171.25/t, and over the last year it decreased by 34.1%. On a weekly basis, prices fell by 3.3%.
MATIF wheat, September contract – the price fell by 0.99% on Friday. (EUR 224.50/t – PLN 973/t).
Chart 1.
The quotations of September wheat futures contracts expressed in PLN are presented in the chart below:
Chart 2
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In the continuation chart below of wheat contracts listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, the long-term downtrend dominates, the medium-term trend is upward, and the short-term trend is upward.
Chart 3
CBOT wheat, July contract – price fell by 1.96%. ($206.31/t- PLN 910/t).
Chart 4
The Chicago Stock Exchange is currently dominated by a long-term downward trend, a medium-term upward trend, and a short-term upward trend.
Chart 5
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MATIF corn, August contract – the price increased by 0.24%. (EUR 208.50/t – PLN 903/t).
Chart 6
The quotations of August corn futures contracts expressed in PLN are presented in the chart below:
Chart 7
In the continuation chart below of corn contracts listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, the long-term downtrend dominates, the medium-term trend is upward, and the short-term trend is upward.
Chart 8
CBOT corn, linden contract – price decreased by 1.08%. ($171.25/t-PLN 694/t).
Chart 9
The continuation chart of corn contracts listed on CBOT is dominated by a long-term downward trend, a medium-term upward trend and a short-term upward trend.
Chart 10
