Reasons for lower harvest forecasts
The current forecast is based on average weather conditions over the last five years, so an improvement or deterioration in these conditions in spring and summer triggers an adjustment. The latest reduction in harvest forecasts for the new season is due to hot and dry weather in Ukraine in July this year, which negatively affected the potential yield of cereals and oilseeds.
In such conditions, UGA estimates that exports of cereals and oilseeds from Ukraine in the 2024/2025 season will amount to 41 million tons, which is 2.5 million tons less than in the previous forecast. The reduction in exports compared to the previous season may exceed 16 million tons.
Forecasts regarding the harvest of individual plant species
The UGA estimates the wheat harvest in 2024 at 19.8 million tons, with potential exports in the 2024/2025 season at approximately 13 million tons. Barley production may amount to 4.95 million tons, and potential exports to approximately 2 million tons.
Expectations for the new season's corn harvest are deteriorating due to a prolonged period of drought in several regions. Therefore, UGA forecasts the corn harvest at 23.4 million tons, which is 2.1 million tons less than the previous estimate and 6.2 million tons less than last year (29.6 million tons).
Potential grain exports may amount to approximately 18.5 million tons.
UGA predicts that the sunflower harvest will amount to 12.8 million tons, of which 12.5 million tons will be processed in Ukraine. Rapeseed production is forecast at 4.3 million tons and exports at 3.4 million tons.
In the case of soybeans, even though farmers are increasing the area under cultivation, unfavorable weather conditions will not allow for larger harvests due to lower yields. Therefore, the soybean harvest is expected to amount to approximately 4.8 million tons, i.e. 0.7 million tons less than previously estimated.
The potential export of oilseeds in the 2024/2025 season may amount to 3.5 million tons.
