Record rapeseed harvest in the world
Yesterday afternoon, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its latest monthly report, including forecasts for global oilseed production this season. The report showed yet again an improvement in the forecast for global rapeseed and soybean crops to record levels (see below for details).
Rapeseed prices in the contract for November delivery on the Paris stock exchange fell yesterday by 1.0 percent and amounted to EUR 460.00/t (PLN 1,984/t) and were 0.8 percent lower than a year ago.
US soybean price near 4-year low
American soybeans fell 1.6% to $371.84/t. Year-on-year, soybeans fell 27.8%. Canadian canola fell 0.8% to $587.10/t, down 22.9% over the past year.
In Monday's report for the 2024/25 season, USDA forecasts a symbolic increase in global rapeseed harvest compared to the previous season – by 0.06 million tonnes to a record 88.83 million tonnes (monthly increase by 0.95 million tonnes). In the European Union, production is to fall by 1.10 million tonnes to 18.90 million tonnes (m/m unchanged), in Canada, harvests are to be higher by 1.2 million tonnes and will amount to 20.0 million tonnes (monthly unchanged), in Ukraine, harvests are to fall by 1.05 million tonnes to 3.7 million tonnes, in Russia higher by 0.9 million (5.1 million tonnes – monthly forecast increase by 0.8 million tonnes) and in Australia to fall by 0.2 million tonnes to 5.5 million tonnes.
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Rapeseed prices August 12, 2024
According to the USDA report, global soybean harvests in the current season (compared to the current season) will increase by 33.6 million tons to a record 428.73 million (m/m increase of 6.87 million tons). In the US, forecast production is to be higher by 11.55 million tons and will amount to 124.90 million tons (m/m increase of 4.20 million tons), in Brazil, the increase in harvests should reach 16.0 million tons to 169.0 million tons, and in Argentina, it should increase by 1.0 million tons to 51.0 million tons.
Matif rapeseed, November contract – price fell by 0.97 percent. (460.00 EUR/t – 1984 PLN/t).
The November rapeseed futures contracts quoted in Polish zloty are presented in the chart below:
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Who is already sowing rapeseed? Sowing has started in Poland
The following continuation chart of rapeseed futures listed on Matif shows a long-term downtrend, a medium-term uptrend and a short-term downtrend.
CBOT soybeans, August contract – price fell by 1.56 percent (371.84 USD/t – 1,468 PLN/t).
On the Chicago Stock Exchange, a rising trend dominates for soybeans – the long-term trend is upward, the medium-term trend is upward, and the short-term trend is downward.
Canola WCE, November contract – price fell by 0.83 percent (587.10 CAD/t – 1,689 PLN/t).
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Farmers divided into better and worse. All because of the Agricultural Protection Fund
In Winnipeg, canola is dominated by a long-term downtrend, a medium-term uptrend and a short-term uptrend.
