Increase in global pork production and consumption
Rabobank forecasts an increase in global pork production and price pressure in the EU for the second half of 2024.
At the same time, a seasonal increase in pork consumption is expected. According to Rabobank, epidemic pressure and uncertainty in trade policy, such as the Chinese anti-dumping investigation into pork imports from the EU and the outcome of the upcoming US presidential elections, remain risk factors.
Reconstruction of the sow herd
However, with the EU in mind, Rabobank expects pork prices to remain stable or decline slightly in the third quarter of 2024. Potential downward pressure could result from a likely slight increase in supply and a seasonal decline in piglet prices.
The sow population will likely recover faster than previously expected. When it comes to EU pork exports in the period from July to September 2024, experts are particularly optimistic about the destinations of the Philippines and Vietnam. Domestic supplies are limited there due to disease outbreaks in animal populations.
China still important
In the first four months of this year, both countries significantly increased their purchases from the Community compared to the same period last year. Deliveries to the Philippines increased by 16.3%. up to 121,500 tons of pork, and to Vietnam by up to 70.8%. to almost 51,100 tons. However, China's anti-dumping investigation against EU pork imports could disrupt the market, Rabobank warned.
China is still the most important destination country with a volume share of around 30%. total pork exports from the EU. According to Rabobank, in the event of a Chinese import ban or high import duties on EU goods, EU exporters could have difficulty finding alternative markets. This applies in particular to offal and other products such as pig ears, snouts and feet. In the long term, this may lead to a reduction in pork production in the EU.
Anti-dumping investigations
According to Rabobank, anti-dumping investigations in Beijing have so far had little impact on the local market. However, Chinese pork importers may preemptively increase their demand on the global market in the coming months. This is confirmed by the fact that some Chinese wholesalers, immediately after the announcement of the anti-dumping proceedings, increased their stocks of frozen imported goods, thus taking advantage of the possibilities of storing imported goods.
However, Chinese pork importers have been very cautious about continuing to supply the EU, given the uncertainty around trade policy. The PRC may impose temporary duties before the outcome of the investigation is known, Dutch experts stressed.
