- The harvest is still ongoing in the north of the country. The harvest will end in the second week of August.
- Due to the forecasted high grain production in Poland in 2024, in order to balance the market it will be necessary to maintain high grain exports in the current season.
- The transit of wheat, corn and rapeseed last month amounted to approximately 160 thousand tonnes.
- The EU cereal production forecast by the European Commission is 271.6 million tonnes (an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous year and a decrease of 3.4% compared to the 5-year average).
The aim of the team, as reported in a press release by the Ministry of Agriculture, is to assess the situation on the grain market and to analyse systemic solutions on this market. This is the result of problems with determining the grain surplus that was in farmers' warehouses at the beginning of this year. Depending on its source, the data varied greatly, by as much as several million tonnes. We learn that the team has held 5 meetings so far, during which many important issues concerning the grain sector were raised.
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9 million tons of grain surplus. What to do with it? Commentary by the president of the IZP
Who is part of the grain market monitoring team?
As reported, these are experts from: MRiRW, National Support Centre for Agriculture, Central Statistical Office, Agricultural Advisory Centre, National Council of Agricultural Chambers, Elewarr Sp. z o. o., Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics – National Research Institute (PIB) and Institute of Cultivation, Fertilization and Soil Science – National Research Institute.
We already have the team's first comments. They concern the current situation on the grain market.
First, the harvest campaign was assessed. – The harvest is still ongoing in the north of the country. The harvest will end in the second week of August. The weather conditions were unusual this year (very warm autumn and February 2024, frosts at the end of April, and then water shortages), which made it difficult to adapt agricultural technology. This could have had an impact on the size of the crop, as well as its regional diversification – we read in a press release from the Ministry of Agriculture.
Secondly, the cereal harvest was assessed. They cited data from the Central Statistical Office. – The preliminary estimate of the main agricultural and horticultural crops published by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) on 31 July 2024 shows that this year's harvest of basic cereals with mixtures (excluding maize, millet and buckwheat) may be at the level of 25.6 million tonnes compared to 26.5 million tonnes in 2023, i.e. 4 percent (1 million tonnes) lower. Of this, the wheat harvest amounted to 12.3 million tonnes compared to 13.2 million tonnes in 2023, i.e. over 0.8 million tonnes (6 percent) lower – according to the report.
Thirdly, the team referred to grain prices. – Domestic grain prices are influenced by prices on the world market, including on the MATIF exchange in Paris. According to data from the Integrated Agricultural Market Information System (ZSRIR) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, grain prices in Poland were 10-52% lower from 29 July to 4 August 2024 compared to the situation a year or two ago. Grain prices are currently also below the level of 2021 (lower on average by 14%), but higher than in 2020. On average, PLN 850/tonne was paid for consumption wheat, while feed corn cost an average of PLN 884/tonne (prices within the ZSRIR are volume-weighted prices, which means that the average price is most influenced by those transactions that involve the largest quantities of purchased grain). There is a tendency for farmers to store their own crops – according to a press release.
It's not over yet. The team also provided specific comments on grain trade and transit.
Read more
The harvest is not over yet. Where has the grain not gone to the scythe?
– In 2023, a record 13.7 million tons of grain were exported from Poland (an increase of 50% compared to the previous year), of which about 40% went to markets outside the EU. This year (from January to May 2024), almost 5 million tons of grain were exported from Poland. Due to the forecasted high grain production in Poland in 2024, in order to balance the market, it will be necessary to maintain high grain exports in the current season – we read. There is also data on the transit of grain from Ukraine. – The transit of grain from Ukraine through the territory of Poland is being monitored. No alarming trends are being noted in this area. The transit of wheat, corn and rapeseed in the last month amounted to approx. 160 thousand tons – we read on the website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.
The situation on the world and EU grain markets
This is not the end of the analyses presented by the team. It must be admitted that it was done on many levels, including assessing the world market.
– In the 2024/2025 season, according to the International Grains Council (IGC), global grain production could be record-breaking and amount to 2,320.9 million tonnes (an increase of 21.7 million tonnes, or 0.9% compared to last year). Global grain consumption will exceed production, and therefore the end-of-season stocks will amount to 586.0 million tonnes (a decrease of 0.6% compared to last year), reads the press release.
As added, due to unfavorable weather conditions, grain harvests in Ukraine and Russia will be smaller than last year. In turn, in the USA, Canada, Australia, Argentina, China and Kazakhstan, wheat harvests will be high, and high corn harvests will be recorded mainly in the USA, Brazil, Argentina.
The EU cereal production forecasted by the European Commission is 271.6 million tonnes (an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous year and a decrease of 3.4% compared to the 5-year average), including:
corn production – 62.9 million tonnes (an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous year and a decrease of 5.8% compared to the 5-year average);
production of common wheat – 120.8 million tonnes (a decrease of 3.8% compared to the previous year and of 4.7% compared to the 5-year average).
– Mainly due to weather conditions, the largest declines in grain production compared to last year are forecast in France, Hungary, Romania and Italy – experts say.
