Increasing supply of poultry in the EU
As analysts from bank PKO BP SA indicate in the latest Agro Navigator, according to Eurostat data, in the third quarter 2024 year. production of poultry meat by the six largest players in the EU, measured by mass of bowls, was higher by 5.2 perc. year/year, of which in Poland by 3.3 proc.
“Domestic dynamics were strongly differentiated – births of chickens increased by 6.7 percent, year, while indices decreased by 12 percent.The October increase in hatchlings at most leading producers in the EU suggests, that also in 4q24 the production data indicate an increase. From GUS data, on firms employing at least 50 people, it appears that domestic production of poultry meat in January-February 24 was higher by 1.3 percent. year/year.” – analysts indicate.
Consequences of flu birds
Experts indicate, that the reduced supply of indicators may be related to the spread of flu birds (HPAI). In the last quarter of 2024 year in Poland twenty four focuses of influenza of birds, on total in farms keeping chickens litters and indykes wild.
The bird flu has strongly affected other countries in the EU – Germany, France, Italy and Hungary. There have been 200 outbreaks in Hungary, which is over half of cases in the whole EU. In Poland an additional problem is the crossing of poultry. According GIW to 30
Gru’24 there have been 21 focuses of this disease, mainly in farms with curs corns in the provinces of Podlaskie,
Mazovian and Lublin, as analysts add.
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Rising exports of poultry from Poland
Poland exports of meat and offal poultry in the period July- .October 2024 year. increased by 7.8 percent. year/yr (total in the period January-October 2024 year. by 9.3 perc. year/year), as the authors report.
“The rate of growth of exports exceeds the dynamics of domestic production. The biggest growths have been recorded in supplies to Great Britain, Germany and Spain, and also to the Philippines, which has opened its market for Polish poultry. Exports to South Africa also increased, in reaction to removal of import restrictions in that country after an epidemic of flu birds. An additional factor supporting exports to the EU was the decreased supply of poultry from Ukraine – according to Eurostat the EU imports from this country in the period of the st.October 2024 decreased by 23 perc. year/year.” – read in report.
Growth prices at end 2024 year.
According to report, poultry prices from October 2024 year. remain at a higher level than the year previously. Index of poultry prices FAO in November 2024 year. was higher by 9.1 proc. year, a in December by 11.4 proc. year.
“Changes in the country are in the world trend – according to MRiRW the average purchase price of chicken broilers in November 2024 was 5,20 zl/kg, which means an increase by 6 perc. year/year (in December dynamics may have reached 10 proc.). Even higher growth was reported in the price of indices (+21 perc. year/year), which results from limited supply. Relations of food prices to feed prices remain at relatively high levels” – report experts.
Perspective for market poultry for 2025 year.
In the authors report the average price of poultry in 2025 year. will be higher by 4-13 percent year, after about 9 percent decrease
reported in 2024 year.
“High demand for poultry and cost pressures resulting from probable increases in feed
prices may be supportive of such scenario. More favorable relations of food prices to feeds mayencouragefurtherincreasesinproduction,whichcouldlimitthescaleofincreases.Hinderingtheincreaseinpoultrypricesmayinfluencelowerporkpricesin1h25”-statementsanalysts.