- The biggest price increases were for non-alcoholic beverages, up 15.6% year-on-year. Second place in the ranking went to food additives, up 11.2% year-on-year. Third place went to sweets and desserts, up 9.3% year-on-year.
- The TOP5 price list also includes household chemicals and bread, with increases of 8.7% and 6.4% year-on-year, respectively.
- Last month, everyday shopping became more expensive again, by an average of 3.9% year-on-year. This is according to a periodically published report entitled "PRICE INDEX IN RETAIL STORES".
- 69.1 thousand prices from 31.8 thousand stores belonging to 52 retail chains were analyzed. For comparison, in June the increase (calculated using the same methodology) amounted to 3.1%, in May – 2.9%, and in April – 2.4% y/y.
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We put more in our baskets. Frozen food and dairy are on top, beer and vodka are down 
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In July, competitors with similar prices. The price tag is back
– The dynamics of price growth in stores has ceased to slow down and this is an observation consistent with the general increase in inflation recorded in recent months. These changes are not a particular surprise to economists. We can clearly speak of a slow but clear reversal of the trend in April 2024, the main cause of which was the unfreezing of VAT rates on food – notes Dr. Tomasz Kopyściański from WSB Merito University.
Expensive soft drinks
The collected data also shows that in July, out of 17 monitored categories, 13 showed a year-on-year increase. It was the same in June and May. Recently, the first place in the price ranking was taken by non-alcoholic beverages with an average year-on-year increase of 15.6%. In June, this category became more expensive by 4.9%, and in May – by 6.3% year-on-year.
– The seasonal factor is definitely key, resulting from the increased demand for non-alcoholic beverages during the high summer temperatures. However, the increase in prices in this category is also influenced by the increased costs of plastic packaging. In addition, there are higher prices than a year ago for some fruits, e.g. oranges. All this makes juice production more expensive – explains Dr. Kopyściański.
For Piotr Bielski, Director of the Economic Analysis Department at Santander Bank Polska, such a large scale of acceleration in the growth of beverage prices since July is a big surprise.
– We have holidays at the same time every year, so the seasonal factor should not affect the change in prices year-on-year. However, this year has been record-breakingly hot. There has been a drought for many months and the water balance is deteriorating in a large area of the country. This could have increased the cost of water consumption needed for the production of beverages, although I do not think that this would fully explain such a significant jump in the dynamics of price growth from month to month – adds Piotr Bielski.
Food additive prices are up
The second most expensive product group was food additives (i.e. ketchups, mayonnaises, mustards, spices). Their prices increased by 11.2% y/y. It is worth adding that in June they increased by 6.2%, and in May – by 5.9% y/y. It is therefore clear that in this case the dynamics of price growth is also starting to go up.
– Food additives are agricultural products and as such are becoming more expensive. Labor costs on the farm are rising, as well as in transport and the processing industry. We also have the barbecue season now, and small catering and tourism are additionally driving demand and prices – says Dr. Andrzej Maria Faliński from the Economic Dialogue Forum Association.
Third place in the ranking was taken by sweets and desserts. Their prices increased by 9.3% y/y. In the previous edition, they increased by 11.2% y/y. In turn, in May, broadly understood sweets showed a price increase of 12.9% y/y.
– The price increase, this month and last month, is due to the cost of raw materials. Deteriorating natural conditions have a negative impact on the raw materials used in this industry. Increases in the prices of energy carriers and wages, as well as growing demand for sugar and cocoa, with stabilized supply, additionally maintain the high prices in this category. Analyzing climate change, we should not expect the situation to improve – indicates Prof. Sławomir Jankiewicz from WSB Merito University.
Higher prices for bread and household chemicals
Household chemicals came fourth in the ranking, with an average year-on-year increase of 8.7%. In June, the year-on-year increase was 9.2%, and in May – 9.7%. It is therefore clear that the dynamics of price increases in this category is starting to fall slightly, but these are still significant values.
– Prices have stabilized significantly in recent months, but they still remain high. Unfortunately, this category will probably remain at the forefront of price increases. The results are largely dependent on the level of energy and gas prices, which may still increase significantly at the turn of the year – notes Dr. Tomasz Kopyściański.
In turn, bread came in fifth with an average increase of 6.4% y/y. In June, it went up 5.3% y/y, and in May – 4.9% y/y. As Dr. Faliński explains, the main factors behind the increase in bread prices are the rising cost of energy and increasingly expensive materials for the production of raw materials, such as fertilizers, protective agents, fuel and others. In addition, excessively long supply chains result in increasing margins.
– In my opinion, we should expect a further acceleration in the growth of bread prices in the second half of this year. This may be supported by the increases in the prices of grain and flour resulting from weaker harvests in the country and abroad. We should also take into account the increase in gas costs for bakeries after the expiry of the government protective shields at the end of June – reminds the expert from Santander Bank Polska.
Outside the TOP5 of the most expensive categories were personal hygiene products, which went up by 6.2% y/y. In June and May, their prices went up by 5.1% and 3.1% y/y, respectively. Fruits are also on the upside, up 3.8% y/y. In the previous two months, they went up by 1.8% and 2.2% y/y. Dairy prices also went up by 3.6% y/y. The previous increases were 1.1% and 1% y/y.
Why is it more expensive?
– The accelerating increase in fruit prices is the result of, among other things, this year's unfavourable weather conditions. According to preliminary estimates by the Central Statistical Office, this year's fruit harvest may be about 17% lower than a year ago and the weakest since 2019. As a result, we should expect further intensification of the pressure on the increase in fruit prices in the second half of this year – warns Piotr Bielski.
Children’s products have also gone up in price – by 3.5% y/y. In previous months, y/y increases in this category amounted to 1.5% and 4.2%. Recently, fish prices have increased y/y by 2.8%, and previously – by 4.8% and 0.5%. Meats jumped 2.3% y/y in July. The previous increases were at the level of 4.6% and 1.2% y/y. Meat, on the other hand, jumped 2.2% y/y. The two previous increases were of 0.9% and 1.9% y/y. The list of more expensive categories is closed by stimulants (i.e. tea, coffee, beer, vodka) with a result of 1% y/y. In June, they went up y/y by 4.7%, and in May – by 2.6% y/y.
– Price increases in most categories result from the increase in production costs. For example, in the case of cold cuts, they are higher than in the meat category, so their prices are rising faster. In addition, logistics prices are going up. Fish are getting more expensive due to the costs of fuel and energy, transport and wage increases. We also have to take into account weather fluctuations, environmental pollution and changes in regulations related to protection and breeding – sums up Prof. Sławomir Jankiewicz from WSB Merito University.
