- In this article you will learn what the prices of grain and rapeseed are on August 14, 2024.
- The prices of rapeseed and cereals decreased by an average of PLN 10 per tonne.
The latest report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has caused a lot of confusion on the market. It has caused stock exchange prices and purchase prices to fall. What is the reason? USDA estimates speak of a record harvest in the world. Such estimates have once again shown an improvement in the forecasts of rapeseed and soybean harvests in the world to record levels. And in the case of wheat, it is an increase in harvest forecasts to a record level as well. USDA has reduced the expected world grain harvest in the 2024/25 season by 6.5 million tons (+7.2 million tons in July) to 2.830 billion tons. – The current forecast still means a production level 0.8% (21.7 million tons) higher than in the 2023/24 season and a new historical record. The August decline in global grain production expectations was mainly due to lower estimates for corn. USDA lowered (m/m) global feed grain production by 8.4 million tons (including corn by 5 million tons) and rice by 1.0 million tons. At the same time, wheat harvest estimates for this season were raised in August from 796.2 to 798.3 million tons, reports Andrzej Bąk from eWGT. Interestingly, global grain consumption should exceed production. USDA lowered its global grain consumption expectations in August to a still record level of 2.837 billion tons. The downward revision amounted to 2.0 million tons this month. However, grain consumption should increase by 0.7 percent on an annual basis. In addition, the US Department of Agriculture expects global grain stocks to fall at the end of the 2024/25 season, but they will be comfortable.
– The August changes in the global grain balance resulted in closing stocks lower by 3.8 million tons (than expected in July), estimated at 770.0 million tons. After the August downward correction, closing stocks of grain should decrease by 6.8 million tons (-0.9%) year-on-year compared to the end of the 2023/24 season. However, the stocks/use ratio will remain at a comfortable level of 27.1% (stocks will be enough for 99 days of global consumption). It is worth being aware, however, that nearly half of global grain stocks are to be located in China (213 million tons of corn and 135 million tons of wheat and 104 million tons of rice) – assesses eWGT. This is not the end of the pressure on wheat prices was also exerted by the disappointing purchase of this grain by the Egyptian GASC. – Egypt bought only 280 thousand tons of wheat out of the announced 3.8 million tons at the tender on Monday (12.08.2024). The entire purchase was won by suppliers from the Black Sea basin (Ukraine and Bulgaria). Information has appeared on the market that GASC is conducting individual negotiations with Russia on larger wheat purchases – reported Andrzej Bąk from eWGT.
