The remaining customers have mostly already completed their layettes. They did not have to wait for the best discounts, because they are doing better. In addition, this holiday season there were almost 18% more promotions on the above-mentioned assortment than a year earlier. In turn, prices increased by slightly over 6% year-on-year. This, as experts emphasize, is a smaller value than expected. To a large extent, consumers owe this to the ongoing price war on the market among discount stores. In addition, market experts add that in the coming days there will be crowds in stores, but smaller compared to previous years. Despite this, it is still visible that Poles put off making this type of purchases almost until the last minute. It is also known that ultimately, discount stores and hypermarkets will gain the most from children returning to school. In total, almost 69% of buyers will ultimately choose them as their shopping destinations.
Again at the last minute
In July, 8.7% of parents and guardians had already bought layettes for their children. 26.7% did so at the beginning of August, and 21.6% did so in the middle of the month. At the end of August, 26.1% of respondents had left it. In the coming days, stores will be stormed, although it may be smaller than in previous years. This is according to the report entitled "School is coming. Poles on shopping", which was created, among others, on the basis of a survey conducted among consumers responsible for shopping in their homes, as well as an analysis of prices and promotions in stores.
The closer to the end of the holidays, the more willing stores are to offer promotions on school supplies.
– The closer to the end of the holidays, the more eager shops are to offer promotions on school supplies. Poles remember this and usually leave such purchases almost until the last minute. However, it is clear that the dynamics of planning and making them have changed a bit. In previous years, the biggest boom literally occurred at the very end of August. It affected up to 40% of consumers. Now it will be different. Poles are waiting less intensively for the biggest discounts because their financial situation has improved – comments Robert Biegaj from the Offerista Group.
As Dr. Maria Andrzej Faliński from the Economic Dialogue Forum Association (SFDG) notes, parents are currently more relaxed about this type of purchases.
– Recently, the opinion has been strengthened that prices have stopped rising quickly and dramatically. Of course, it is still expensive in stores, but the situation is quite stable. In addition, August is the month of launching layettes, quarterly bonuses and compensation in companies and pensions, etc. That is why the turn of August and September is a shopping boom – says Dr. Faliński.
According to the report, 9.2% of consumers plan to buy school supplies at the beginning of September, and 2.6% intend to wait until the middle of next month. Meanwhile, 5.1% of customers do not know when they will do it. – The survey results show that a total of almost 12% of parents want to shop during the biggest market promotions, because then stores will want to get rid of seasonal goods faster – adds Robert Biegaj.
Higher prices, but more promotions
The report also takes into account estimates by Hiper-Com Poland and UCE Research. They show that from July 1 this year to August 15 this year, retail chains made 6.8 thousand promotions for school supplies. A year earlier, there were 5.8 thousand. Therefore, the year-on-year increase is as much as 17.9%. For comparison, it can be indicated that in the entire first half of 2024, retail chains generally organized almost 9% more promotions than in the same period last year.
– It is clear that this time, retail chains have really come to the consumers' aid, leading to a double-digit jump in the number of promotions on school supplies year-on-year. That is why they have not gone up in price as previously announced. This is largely due to the price war that has been going on for several months between the largest discounters, but not only that, because in this case hypermarkets have also seriously joined the matter – explains Julita Pryzmont from Hiper-Com Poland.
In turn, the preliminary estimate of UCE Research showed that the prices of school supplies have recently increased by 6.2% year-on-year. In this case, the results recorded from July 1 to August 18 this year and in the same period of 2023 were compared. This concerned 22 basic categories and 59 products most frequently chosen by consumers. In total, over 12.1 thousand prices were compared, including regular and promotional ones. As the expert from the Offerista Group points out, a year ago inflation was practically at its peak. Therefore, the year-on-year increase is not large, but it is indeed expensive in stores. And if it were not for the price war on the market, school supplies would certainly have recorded a double-digit increase.
– The price increase for school supplies slightly exceeds the general CPI inflation, which in July and August amounted to approx. 4% y/y. They are therefore growing faster than the general price level, but the difference is insignificant. Before the end of the holidays, there is an increased demand for the above products. Parents who bought them well in advance had to reckon with higher prices. I assume that now and in September there will be big promotions, because retail chains will want to clear their warehouses. I think that after taking into account these changes, the average price increase for school supplies will be much closer to the CPI inflation index than in the period from July to mid-August – predicts Marcin Luziński from Santander Bank Polska.
Discount stores and hypermarkets are on top again
According to consumer declarations, this year 37.9% of parents and guardians will ultimately make this type of purchase in discount stores. On the other hand, 30.8% of buyers will choose hypermarkets. – As you can see, almost 69% of the above people complete their layettes in the largest market formats. And the chains from these segments will fight over which one of them will earn the most. Discount stores have a percentage advantage here, but hypermarkets do not fall behind them at all – emphasizes Robert Biegaj.
In addition, Dr. Faliński adds that in the category of school supplies, discount stores and hypermarkets are similar in terms of price. – That is why they have similar results. The advantage of the former is their quantity and proximity, and the latter – a larger offer and the presence of premium products – slightly more expensive, but distinguished by quality and aesthetics. In addition, a hypermarket is usually a single shopping trip, and not a search spread over time. The quantitative advantage of discount stores means that they are present even in the smallest towns, where there are fewer other formats – explains the expert from SFDG.
According to this report, 7.3% of parents and guardians will complete their school supplies in supermarkets, 7.7% in wholesalers, and 11.7% in local stores (including specialist bookstores). "These results do not look impressive compared to discount stores and hypermarkets, but it must also be clearly stated that supermarkets, for example, do not pay much attention to the above assortment. Few parents do such shopping there. They also rarely go specifically to bookstores for school supplies," summarizes Robert Biegaj from the Offerista Group.
