Wheat Market
USDA forecasts wheat production to rise to 798.3 million tonnes and shipments to rise by 3.5 million tonnes to 1.061 billion tonnes, mainly due to higher production in Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Australia, which outweighs lower production in the EU and the US. In addition, larger initial stocks are forecast for several countries, including the EU. Production in Ukraine is raised on the basis of data from the State Statistics Service indicating a larger-than-expected harvested area. Despite a slightly smaller harvested area, production in Kazakhstan is raised on the basis of a higher yield forecast based on abundant rainfall and above-average crop health conditions. EU production is reduced by 2.0 million tonnes to 128.0 million, which would be the lowest since 2020/21. Several months of heavy rainfall in France have reduced quality and yield prospects for the EU’s largest wheat producer.
Global wheat consumption rose by 4.1 million tonnes to a record 804.0 million compared to July, mainly due to higher feed and residual use by the EU, Kazakhstan and Ukraine.
World trade rose by 2.0 million tonnes to 214.9 million, mainly due to increased exports from Australia and Ukraine.
Projected global ending stocks for 2024/25 have been lowered by 0.6 million tonnes to 256.6 million, the lowest level since 2015/16.
Feed Grain Market
Global 2024/25 feed grain production is forecast to be down 8.1 million tonnes from July, at 1.504 billion tonnes. The 2024/25 feed grain forecast for this month is for lower production, trade and closing stocks compared with the previous month.
The world corn production forecast is down as a result of cuts in the EU, Russia, Serbia, Ukraine and Moldova. For the EU, Serbia and Russia, extreme heat and drought in southeastern Europe and the southern and northern Caucasus regions of Russia in July are lowering the crop outlook. Corn production in Ukraine is down as increased area is offset by lower yield expectations. Yields are forecast lower as a result of heat and drought in July in key corn-growing regions. Expected area increased.
Read more
New USDA report: Wheat production forecast up, feed grain production down
Wheat Market
Global barley production in 2024/25 remains virtually unchanged, with increases for Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan largely offset by declines for the EU.
The main changes in global feed grain trade for 2024/25 include higher corn exports from the US, but reductions for the EU, Serbia, Ukraine, Russia and India. Corn imports are increased for India and Zimbabwe, but reduced for Iran, Chile, Egypt, Nepal and Vietnam. Sorghum exports are reduced for the US, and lower imports are expected for China. Barley exports are increased for Kazakhstan and Ukraine, but reduced for the EU. Final world corn stocks are lower, reflecting declines for the EU, Pakistan, Nigeria and Serbia, which are partly offset by increases for Mexico and India.
World corn stocks stand at 310.2 million tonnes, down 1.5 million tonnes from July.
Read more
Egypt Announces Largest Wheat Tender in History. Why? 
Read more
Wages up over 100 percent, and grain is cheap. How much should wheat cost?
