The next week of grain futures quotations did not bring any improvement in the price situation. In most cases, prices have dropped. The latest monthly USDA report published on Friday afternoon did not improve the situation, on the contrary – an increase in harvest forecasts (mainly in the USA – details below) resulted in a significant decline in the price of wheat.
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Wheat in the September delivery contract on MATIF fell by 1.5% on Friday. and cost EUR 220.00/t (PLN 936/t), and y/y prices dropped by 4.0%. During the week, the price decreased by 3.6%. The price of corn on the Paris Stock Exchange fell by 1.5% in the August contract. and amounted to EUR 216.75/t (PLN 923/t), and over the last year it decreased by 3.8%. On a weekly basis, the prices increased by 0.8%.
Wheat on CBoT in the September contract fell by 3.6% on Friday. and cost USD 202.36/t. On a y/y basis, the prices fell by 12.2%. During the week, the price dropped by 6.7%. The price of corn in the September delivery contract on the Chicago Stock Exchange increased by 0.4%. and amounted to USD 158.28/t, and over the last year it decreased by 32.3%. On a weekly basis, prices fell by 2.1%.
Increase in global wheat production forecasts
According to the USDA, the global wheat harvest in the 2024/25 season is expected to reach a record 796.19 million tons – an increase of 7.23 million tons compared to the previous season (the forecast was increased by 5.44 million tons during the month). Closing stocks at the end of the current season are forecast at 257.24 million tonnes – 3.75 million tonnes lower than those estimated at the end of the previous season – these will be the lowest stocks in several years.
Less wheat in the EU
Among the world's most important producers and exporters of wheat, a decline in harvest in the current season (compared to the previous season) is expected in Russia – by 8.5 million tons to 83.0 million tons, in the European Union – by 4.15 million tons to 130.0 million t (m/m decrease by 0.5 million t) and in Ukraine – by 3.5 million t to 19.5 million t.
An increase in wheat production is forecast in Argentina – by 2.94 million tons to 18.0 million tons, in the USA – by 5.35 million tons to 54.66 million tons (an increase in the forecast for a month by 3.64 million tons), in Kazakhstan – by 2.39 million t to 14.5 million t., in Canada – by 3.05 million t to 35.0 million t. (MoM increase by 1.0 million t) and in Australia – by 3, 0 million t to 29.0 million t. From other countries – large producers (but not exporters) – in India, the harvest is expected to amount to 114.00 million t (an increase of 3.45 million t) and in China 140.0 million t (an increase by 3.4 million tonnes).
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According to the July USDA report, the global corn harvest in the current season will amount to 1,224.79 million tons – a decrease of 0.66 million tons compared to the previous season (an increase in the monthly forecast of 4.25 million tons). Stocks at the end of the current season are expected to increase by 2.51 million tonnes to 311.64 million tonnes. In the USA, production is forecast to decline by 6.14 million tonnes to 383.56 million tonnes (MoM forecast increase of 6.1 million tonnes). , in Brazil the increase is expected to amount to 5.0 million t to 127.0 million t, in Ukraine it is expected to decrease by 3.3 million t to 27.7 million t, in the European Union the harvest is expected to be higher by 3.0 million t and will amount to 64.0 million tonnes in Argentina lower by 2.0 million tonnes and will increase to 51.0 million tonnes.
MATIF wheat, September contract – the price fell by 1.46% on Friday. (EUR 220.00/t – PLN 936/t).
Chart 1.
The quotations of September wheat futures contracts expressed in PLN are presented in the chart below:
Chart 2
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In the continuation chart below of wheat contracts listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, the long-term downward trend dominates, the medium-term trend is upward, and the short-term trend is upward.
Chart 3
CBOT wheat, September contract – price dropped by 3.59%. ($202.36/t- PLN 791/t).
Chart 4
The Chicago Stock Exchange is currently dominated by a long-term downward trend, a medium-term upward trend, and a short-term upward trend.
Chart 5
MATIF corn, August contract – price dropped by 1.48%. (EUR 216.75/t – PLN 923/t).
Chart 6
The quotations of August corn futures contracts expressed in PLN are presented in the chart below:
Chart 7
In the continuation chart below of corn contracts listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, the long-term downtrend dominates, the medium-term trend is up, and the short-term trend is up.
Chart 8
CBOT corn, September contract – price increased by 0.44%. ($158.28/t- PLN 619/t).
Chart 9
The continuation chart of corn contracts listed on CBOT is dominated by a long-term downward trend, a medium-term upward trend and a short-term downward trend.
Chart 10
