For now, stocks are flat-footed as investors await new data. The S&P 500 and STOXX 600 indices were almost unchanged in the last trading session without any new relevant data. Brent crude rose to $82/bbl after Israel and the US warned of an imminent Iranian retaliatory attack on Israel.
Iran has not forgotten about Israel's attack on Hamas, and the US is increasing its military presence in the region in preparation for a possible conflict. This increase in geopolitical fears, on the other hand, was somewhat offset by oil cartel OPEC's reduced oil consumption forecasts for next year.
Several pieces of the inflation puzzle will arrive today. Before the most important event of the week and the month, the US inflation data, today will be the data of the domestic producer index. Producer index data has been rising for some time since last year's lows. In June, the annual growth of the producer price index reached 2.6 percent, economists expect this estimate to decrease to 2.3 percent in July, the first decrease since 2023. November Producer prices are an important primary indicator of general inflation, this effect is transmitted to consumers within 1-3 months. However, so far most of the growth in inflation has come from growth in services, which are now the main driver of price increases. It is important to note that, unlike in other countries, the US producer price index also includes part of service prices.
