- Forecasts for the grain harvest during the month have been corrected, and June is ahead of us, which may still change a lot statistically.
- This is, among other things, the result of the fact that this year we very quickly entered the so-called wheather market, i.e. a market dependent on the weather.
- The countries that have the greatest impact on the grain market are primarily Russia, and only secondly is Ukraine.
- The forecast for the Russian wheat harvest was reduced by 10-11 million tons due to unfavorable weather conditions. This, in turn, influenced the quotations of this raw material on stock exchanges.
- The expected smaller grain surpluses, especially in Russia, will result in the search for wheat in other markets. The consequence of this may be an even higher price of wheat.
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Polish Grain Day. We cannot bring farmers into conflict with entrepreneurs
Russia dictates prices on the grain market
Russia has had the last two years of very good weather and very high, even record harvests. This year, May turned out to be exceptionally dry. It's very hot at the moment. Additionally, there were frosts in the central region of the country. In addition, we have wet and cold conditions in the east, where the sowing of spring wheat is difficult. All this resulted in the fact that within a month the Russian wheat harvest had already been reduced by 10-11 million tons, Mirosław Marciniak told us during the Polish Grain Day.
He added that these corrections had an impact on the market and prices. These have gone up and are staying at that level.
– Every time something happens in Russia, the stock exchanges react nervously. Because today Russia is the largest wheat exporter in the world, the analyst added.
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It's also dry in Ukraine
A similar weather pattern also occurs in Ukraine. It's dry and hot there too.
– The Black Sea region, which influenced the markets just as it did after the outbreak of the war, will also influence them now, because there is a large surplus of wheat here, mainly to countries in Africa and the Middle East. And for this reason, markets are wondering what the availability of wheat will be in the new season, he added.
The question is how much longer will harvests be cut in this region? If June brings further cuts, importers from Africa and the Middle East will need to obtain grain from other countries. They will look for grain in Europe, in the United States.
What about the price? Until recently, wheat prices on the stock exchanges were below EUR 200 per tonne, but now the question is whether the price can exceed EUR 300. More in the video below.
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Marciniak: How large is the grain transport through Polish ports?
