They focus also on the forecast. According to representatives of the Department of Economic Analysis PKO BP, the price of wheat in the first half of 2025 year, will increase by something percent year/year. – In the whole 2025 year dynamics of prices may shape at level from -4 proc. to +15 proc. In the case of expected production rebound in some regions (among others. EU) may mean that stabilization of price levels (with risk up) in the second half year. The risk is
generic factors and unpredictable weather events – forecasts PKO BP.
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Prices of cereals na poczatku 2025 year. One grade has visibly increased
What is going on the market for cereals?
There have been changes in the estimation of cereals in the season 2024/2025. – In November and December 2024 USDA revised in down forecasts of world supplies of cereals total for season . 2024/2025 total o 1.5 proc. In great publication estimated it at 581 tys t (-5.4 proc. year/year), which means the lowest level since the season 2014/2015. The relationship of stocks to consumption falls below 25 proc, reaching the lowest level since the season 2013/2014 – reads in Agro Navigator.
Analysts have also reported results in Poland
for data from Main Statistical Office . Statistics of harvest of cereals, GUS has reduced to less than 35
million tons (previously 35.3 million tons), which means a decrease by 2.4 percent. year/yr.
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How much does the cheapest new car cost? Nearly 80 tons of wheat
Less supply of grain from Ukraine
The situation of our neighbor.
– UkrainianExports of wheat from beginning July to 20 December 2024 amounted 9.3 million tons, which represents an increase of 38 percent. year/year (data of Ukrainian resort agriculture). This is 56 percent of projected by USDA volume for season 2024/2025. The second half of the season may however be weaker due to the expected decrease in shippings from Ukraine in the whole season. 2024/2025 by 11 proc. year/year – reports PKO BP.
This is not the end. Important is also the situation in Russia.
– Supply of cereals from Russia will
be reduced because of lower export limits. USDA forecasts a decrease in final stocks of wheat in Russia at the end of the season 2024/2025
which will be deteriorated in winter conditions, may mean lower supply in this country in season. 2025/2026 – read in Agro Navigator.
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Egypt satisfied its needs for wheat until mid 2024 year. Grains purchased mostly from Russia
What with exports of grains?
This has declined. – From GUS data it appears, that in the first four months of the season 2024/2025 Poland exports of cereals amounted 2.9 million tons and was lower by 37 percent. year Saldo in the Poland foreign trade with beans in July-October 2024 decreased by almost 40 percent. in relative to unrepresentative, analogous period before year, less this level was higher than two and three years previous – PKO BP reports.
Greater performance confirms data from the European Commission.
– According to their EU wheat
exports in the period 1 July – 15 December 2024 was 10.5 million ton (-31 proc. year/year). The largest
declines were observed in France (-63 proc. year/year) and Poland (-57 proc. year/year). The deceleration of exports in
eastern markets may however createspacefora reboundofPolandsalesfrom abroadinthesecondhalfoftheseason-AgroNavigator reports.
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