Larger stocks compared to June
Taking into account the latest acreage estimates and with better crop prospects in some countries, the wheat (North America, Pakistan, Kazakhstan) and corn (USA) harvest forecasts are revised upwards. Despite lower estimated stocks at the beginning of the period and a slight increase in forecast demand, carryover stocks (the sum of data for each local marketing year) increased by 4 million tonnes compared to June, to 586 million.
Less grain trade
Consumption for feed, food and industrial purposes is expected to continue to increase to record levels, 1% expected at the end of 2024/2025. stockpiles drop to the lowest level in 10 years, 586 million tons. Maize accounts for most of the decline (-2%), due to residue reductions in the EU, Russia, Ukraine and across sub-Saharan Africa. While the projected decline in wheat stocks could be relatively small, it would nonetheless represent a second consecutive year of tightening. Due to projected declines in wheat and corn flows, grain trade is expected to decline by 7% to 418 million tonnes.
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