Grain prices have been rising for three weeks
Since the four-year lows of grain contracts on CBoT and several months on MATIF set almost three weeks ago, prices have been rising. During this time, wheat on the Paris exchange rose by 18.7 percent, and on CBoT by 19.4 percent. The price of corn on these exchanges rose by 8.7 percent and 14.2 percent, respectively. These are already significant "advances" to expect that this is not just a reaction to earlier declines, but the beginning of an upward trend.
Wheat in the December delivery contract at MATIF rose by 1.0 percent on Friday and cost EUR 225.00/t (PLN 965/t), and in year-on-year terms the quotations increased by 9.4 percent. The price of corn on the Paris exchange in the November contract increased by 0.9 percent and amounted to EUR 205.50/t (PLN 881/t), and over the past year it has fallen by 2.8 percent. In weekly terms the quotations increased by 1.7 percent.
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Wheat on the CBoT in the December contract on Friday rose by 2.8% and cost USD 218.53/t. In year-on-year terms, the quotations increased by 4.8%. Over the week, the price increased by 4.9%. The price of corn in the contract for delivery in December on the Chicago exchange increased by 1.8% and amounted to USD 162.69/t, and over the past year it has fallen by 10.6%. In weekly terms, the quotations increased by 1.7%.
World grain harvest forecasts
The global wheat harvest in the 2024/25 season, according to the September USDA report, is expected to reach a record 796.88 million tons – an increase of 6.34 million tons compared to the previous season (the forecast was lowered by 1.4 million tons for a month). Final stocks at the end of the current season are forecast at 257.22 million tons – 8.03 million tons lower than estimated at the end of the previous season – these will be the lowest stocks in several years.
Among the world's most important producers and exporters of wheat, a decrease in harvest in the current season (compared to the previous season) is expected in Russia – by 8.5 million tonnes to 83.0 million tonnes, in the European Union – by 10.87 million tonnes to 124.00 million tonnes (m/m decrease by 4.0 million tonnes) and in Ukraine – by 0.7 million tonnes to 22.3 million tonnes.
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Wheat production is forecast to increase in Argentina by 2.94 million tonnes to 18.0 million tonnes, in the USA by 4.62 million tonnes to 53.93 million tonnes, in Kazakhstan by 3.89 million tonnes to 16.0 million tonnes, in Canada by 3.05 million tonnes to 35.0 million tonnes, and in Australia by 6.04 million tonnes to 32.0 million tonnes. In other large producing countries (but not exporters), the harvest in India is expected to amount to 114.00 million tonnes (an increase of 3.45 million tonnes) and in China 140.0 million tonnes (an increase of 3.4 million tonnes).
According to the September USDA report, the world corn harvest in the current season will amount to 1,218.57 million tons – a decrease of 5.76 million tons compared to the previous season (a decrease in the forecast for the month by 1.26 million tons). Stocks at the end of the current season are to fall by 1.28 million tons to 308.35 million tons. In the USA, production is forecast to fall by 3.96 million tons to 385.73 million tons (an increase in the forecast m/m by 0.99 million tons), in Brazil the increase is to amount to 5.0 million tons to 127.0 million tons, in Ukraine the decrease is expected by 5.3 million tons to 27.2 million tons, in the European Union the harvest is to be lower by 2.45 million tons and will amount to 59.00 million tons, and in Argentina lower by 2.0 million tons and increase to 51.0 million tons.
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MATIF wheat, December contract – the price on Friday increased by 1.01% (EUR 225.00/t – PLN 965/t).
Chart 1.
The December wheat futures prices expressed in zlotys are presented in the chart below:
Chart 2
The following continuation chart of wheat futures listed on the Paris stock exchange shows a long-term downtrend, a medium-term uptrend and a short-term downtrend.
Chart 3
CBOT wheat, December contract – price increased by 2.81 percent (218.53 USD/t – 845 PLN/t).
Chart 4
The Chicago Stock Exchange is currently experiencing a long-term downtrend, a medium-term downtrend, and a short-term downtrend.
Chart 5
MATIF corn, November contract – price increased by 0.86% (EUR 205.50/t – PLN 881/t).
Chart 6
The November corn futures quotes expressed in zlotys are presented in the chart below:
Chart 7
In the following continuation chart of corn futures listed on the Paris stock exchange, the long-term trend is downward, the medium-term trend is upward, and the short-term trend is downward.
Chart 8
CBOT corn, December contract – price increased by 1.79% (162.69 USD/t – 629 PLN/t).
Chart 9
The continuation chart of corn futures listed on CBOT is dominated by a long-term downtrend, the medium-term is downward, and the short-term is downward.
Chart 10