Germany: Agriculture Ministry's preliminary report on 2024 harvest

Niemcy: wstępny raport ministerstwa rolnictwa o zbiorach w 2024 r.

General situation

Regional rainfall hampered the sowing of winter cereals, with cereals being grown on a total of only 5.27 million hectares (-5.7%). Grain quality varied regionally depending on the weather. The area under rapeseed fell by 7.3% to 1.09 million hectares. The preliminary findings for the winter rapeseed harvest were 3.6 million tonnes (-14.3%). Potato cultivation, fruit growing and viticulture in the region also suffered significantly due to the many capricious weather conditions.

Spring cereals did not disappoint

The total grain harvest (excluding grain maize) is expected to be around 34.5 million tonnes, down 9.1% from the previous year. Compared to the six-year average, this is a 9.9% drop. Given the fairly stable yields per hectare and only slightly below the multi-year average, the drop in harvest volume is primarily due to a weather-related reduction in crop areas. Spring crops such as spring wheat, spring barley and oats have shown particularly good results.

Detailed discussion of the harvest forecasts for individual crop species

Winter wheat

The winter wheat harvest is expected to reach 18.0 million tonnes. Compared to the previous year, this would be a decrease of 14.8 percent. The result remains 15.7 percent below the multi-year average. Due to unfavourable weather conditions at the time of sowing, the share of the total cereal area fell from 46 to 43 percent. The area under cultivation fell by 11.8 percent to 2.49 million ha compared to the previous year. The average preliminary yield per hectare is 7.24 tonnes, which is 3.4 percent less than in the previous year. Regionally, yields per hectare fluctuated significantly from minus 13.2 percent in North Rhine-Westphalia to plus 5.5 percent in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Winter wheat remained the most important cereal crop in Germany.

Spring wheat

The spring wheat harvest amounted to 473.6 thousand tonnes, which is almost four times more than in the previous year, and the multi-annual average in 2018-2023 was also significantly exceeded and amounted to +91.1%. The area of spring wheat cultivation increased significantly (+179.6% compared to the previous year) due to moisture problems during sowing of winter wheat and amounts to about 85.1 thousand ha. The yield per hectare of 5.57 tonnes is also significantly higher than in the previous year (+30%).

Rape

The winter rapeseed harvest in 2024 is expected to be 3.6 million tonnes. The quality of the rapeseed is also satisfactory – although there are regional differences. The area under winter rapeseed is 1.09 million ha, down 7.3 percent compared to 2023. Nevertheless, the extent of cultivation exceeds that of 2022. The German rapeseed area in 2024 will also be almost four percent larger than the six-year average from 2018 to 2023. Compared to 2023, the harvest has fallen by 14.3 percent. However, compared to the average from 2018 to 2023, this was only a slight decrease of 1.6 percent. Winter rapeseed is by far the dominant oil crop in Germany, accounting for 94 percent of the oil crop area.

Legumes

In Germany, field peas remain the dominant legume. The preliminary figures for 2024 still stand at around 129,400 hectares. Compared to the previous year, this represents an increase of almost 10 percent. This confirms the scale of the increase in cultivation compared to the previous year. In second place are field beans with almost 62,000 hectares and – in fourth place after soybeans – sweet lupins with around 26,100 hectares. Legumes such as soybeans, broad beans and peas are essential components of sustainable agriculture.

Fruit

At the end of April, late frosts caused significant damage in the fruit-growing regions of Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Thuringia and Brandenburg, but also in parts of Hesse, Rhineland-Palatinate, Franconia and Baden. Apple, cherry and plum plantations suffered enormous damage. Warm and humid weather in the fruit region on Lake Constance also led to a regional increase in the occurrence of scab. According to estimates from July 2024, around 734,000 tonnes of apples could be harvested this year. This would be 261,300 tonnes – more than a quarter – less (-26.3%) than the average of the past ten years.

Potatoes

According to preliminary results from a spatial development study, the potato area in Germany will be around 289,300 hectares in 2024. This would exceed the previous year's level by a whopping 9.3 percent and the six-year average by 9.4 percent. The current forecast for Germany assumes a yield per hectare of 4.11 tons; this would be a decrease of 6 percent compared to the previous year and 2 percent compared to the six-year average. After a potato harvest in autumn 2023, which was hampered by wet conditions, planting in spring 2024 has been delayed in much of Germany by precipitation and difficult-to-pass arable land. The wet conditions also significantly favor the occurrence of late blight.

Hop

As of this year, Germany is once again the world's largest hop producer, after the US held the top position for the past nine years. For the 2024 harvest, which begins in late August, the harvest is likely to be around 49,000 tonnes, which would correspond to a slightly above-average harvest. The average hop harvest over the past ten years has been 45,000 tonnes.