Grain harvest less than annual consumption
Our consumption in Germany amounts to around 40 million tonnes of grain. Therefore, supply bottlenecks cannot be ruled out, especially since the quality is often disappointing, explains DRV expert Guido Seedler. The reason for the weak result is a further decline in the area under cultivation and lower yields per hectare. This is due to unstable weather, sometimes heavy rainfall, as well as a lack of heat and sun. Light and heat are of great importance for photosynthesis and thus for the formation of the crop. In addition, increasing restrictions on fertilisation and plant protection are leading to a further decline in yields. DRV has also revised its expectations for the rapeseed harvest down slightly. The association currently expects a harvest of 3.6 million tonnes.
Security of supply is a major challenge "The area under cereal cultivation in Germany has been shrinking for years. Ten years ago, 6.5 million hectares of grain were cultivated, while today the area under cultivation is only around 5.8 million hectares," explains Seedler. The area under wheat, the most important cereal in Germany, has fallen particularly drastically. Over the past ten years, it has fallen by almost a quarter from 3.2 million to the current 2.5 million hectares.
The main reasons for the decline in crop areas are construction and climate protection measures, as well as the development of renewable energy sources. This development must be stopped. Politics must be rethought, warns the DRV expert. Land use must be reduced and land productivity must be increased by using the most modern breeding methods and digital technology when using fertilizers and pesticides. Political focus can no longer be solely on extensification. Security of supply through domestic production must once again gain importance. This is all the more true because the world's population will continue to grow by 2050, and according to expert estimates, the demand for agricultural raw materials will increase by up to 50 percent. We must produce more sustainably. Technology and innovation are key to this," emphasizes the DRV grain market expert.
Disappointing harvests also abroad
Seedler warns against relying on imports. This could prove to be a mistake. Harvests in other European countries, such as France and Spain, are also disappointing. The Black Sea region is also expected to see a smaller harvest than last year due to drought. The grain supply balance in both Europe and the world is likely to be very tight again this year. Only the expected good grain maize harvest could bring relief, Seedler said.
With this report, the DRV finalizes its harvest estimates for Germany in 2024. The DRV is expected to publish its final assessment of the grain maize harvest in early November.
Latest forecast for the grain harvest in Germany in 2024
According to the latest DRV forecast, the grain harvest in Germany in 2024 should amount to:
- Winter wheat 18.068 million tonnes.
- Spring wheat 459.5 thousand tonnes.
- Rye 2.829 million tonnes.
- Winter barley 8.749 million tonnes.
- Spring barley 1.885 million tonnes.
- Corn 4,460 million tons.
- Oats 675.7 thousand tons.
- Triticale 1.518 million tonnes.
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