More wheat and feed grains
The monthly increase reflects improved prospects for feed grains – the global production forecast was raised by 0.4%. up to 1.530 billion tons and wheat – where production is expected to increase by 0.3%. to 789 million tonnes compared to June forecasts.
The improved outlook for feed grains is based largely on improved production expectations for corn crops in Argentina and Brazil. Yield forecasts in both countries are moderately elevated this month, reflecting more favorable weather after variable conditions in previous months. Nevertheless, Brazilian production is still expected to be well below the 2023 record. Corn production forecasts for Turkey and Ukraine were also raised. These upward revisions more than outweigh the reduction in maize production forecasts for Indonesia and several southern African countries where drought has reduced yields, as well as for Pakistan due to lower prices and reduced feed demand from the livestock sector, which are expected to lead to for cuts in crops.
World wheat production was also revised upwards, mainly based on improved prospects in Asia, especially in Pakistan, where record wheat production is likely. Unfavorable weather in key wheat-producing areas in Russia led to a significant downgrade in production forecasts, dampening the improving global outlook this month.
Less stock until the end of the season
The FAO's end-of-season forecast for 2025 grain stocks of 894 million tonnes was lowered by 2.9 million tonnes from the previous month, but expectations still point to stocks rising 1.3% above opening levels. With the new forecasts, the 2024/25 global grain stocks-to-use ratio will remain almost unchanged compared to last season at 30.8 percent, continuing to point to adequate supply prospects in the new season. This month's downward revision largely reflects a 4.3 million tonne reduction in global feed grain stock forecasts, primarily attributable to lower corn stock estimates in Brazil and Ukraine. Despite the downward revision, global stocks of feed grains in the 2024/2025 season are expected to increase, reaching 381 million tonnes, or by 2.8%. more than starting levels.
Meanwhile, the forecast for global wheat stocks was raised this month by 1.6 million tonnes to 308 million tonnes, but still indicates a decline of 1.4%. below opening levels. A downgrade in Russia's wheat stock forecast due to a smaller expected harvest accounts for most of the downward revision to global wheat stocks this month.
The forecast for total grain trade in June remains unchanged
The FAO forecast for total international trade in cereals in the 2024/2025 season remains unchanged compared to June at 481 million tonnes, a decrease of 3.0% compared to the level in the 2023/2024 season. The forecast for world trade in feed grains, set at 231 million tonnes in the 2024/2025 season (July/June), was slightly increased (by 0.9 million tonnes) compared to last month, but still indicates a decline of 3.9%. compared to the previous season. While slightly improved corn export prospects for Ukraine and higher corn imports to China raised the global forecast by 1.0 million tonnes, global corn trade is still expected to decline by 4.4%. compared to the level in the 2023/2024 season. Global barley and sorghum trade forecasts for 2024/25 (July/June) remain unchanged from June, with barley trade still heading for a decline of 3.9 per cent, while global sorghum trade is still expected to increase by 6.4 percent.
The forecast for world wheat trade in the 2024/2025 season (July/June) was slightly reduced (by 0.9 million tons) compared to the previous forecast, deepening the expected decline compared to the previous season to 3.7%. This month's downward revision reflects a cut in Russia's export forecast, in line with a cut in its production forecast. Slightly higher sales forecast for some other major wheat exporters, including Kazakhstan and Ukraine, offset the reduction on the export side. On the import side, purchases were reduced for Turkey due to the temporary suspension of wheat imports from June 21 to October 15, and for India, based on the recent government announcement that import duty would remain unchanged relative to domestic stock levels deemed adequate. However, these reductions are partially offset by higher wheat imports expected for China and the European Union.
