Almost three-year low in CBoT corn prices
On Friday, 4 percent. decline in the price of corn on the Chicago Stock Exchange, the quotations were at their lowest level since mid-October 2020. Friday's data on grain stocks in the USA as of June 1 this year. showed an increase in inventories y/y by 22%. in the case of corn and by 23 percent in the case of wheat. Data on a 3% decline in the area of corn sowing did not help much. and wheat by 5%. compared to the previous season.
More wheat and less corn harvests in the EU
In its Thursday report, the European Commission raised its wheat harvest forecasts and lowered its corn harvest forecasts in the EU (details below).
Wheat in the September delivery contract on MATIF fell by 1.1% on Friday. and cost EUR 224.75/t (PLN 969/t), and y/y prices dropped by 8.7%. For a week, the price increased by 0.1%. The price of corn on the Paris Stock Exchange fell by 1.5% in the August contract. and amounted to EUR 207.75/t (PLN 896/t), and over the last year it decreased by 15.7%. On a weekly basis, the prices decreased by 0.4%.
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Drought is powerful! The corn is already cooking
Wheat on CBOT in the July contract fell by 1.1% on Friday. and cost USD 203.37/t. On a y/y basis, the prices fell by 15.2%. For a week, the price fell by 1.4%. The price of corn in the July delivery contract on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell by 4.0%. and amounted to USD 156.39/t, and over the last year it decreased by 31.6%. On a weekly basis, prices fell by 8.4%.
On June 27, the European Commission announced the latest forecasts for the EU cereal harvest in the 2024/25 season. Wheat harvest is expected to be lower by 3.7 million tonnes compared to the current season and will amount to 122.8 million tonnes (an increase in estimates by 2 million tonnes/m). Harvest declines are forecast among the largest EU producers – in France by 4.8 million tons to 30.2 million tons, in Germany by 1.0 million tons to 20.3 million and in Poland by 0.1 million tons to 13.1 million vol.
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Zinc can help protect crops from climate change
In the case of corn, the EC forecasts an increase in harvest by 2.1 million t to 65.0 million t (a decrease in forecasts by 3.8 million tm/m). Among the largest EU producers, the harvest will increase in France – by 0.1 million tonnes to 12.9 million tonnes and in Romania – by 0.3 million tonnes to 10.6 million tonnes, while they will decrease in Poland – by 0.4 million tonnes to 8. 7 million tonnes
MATIF wheat, September contract – the price fell by 1.10% on Friday. (EUR 224.75/t – PLN 969/t).
Chart 1.
The quotations of September wheat futures contracts expressed in PLN are presented in the chart below:
Chart 2
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The little harvest has begun. What does it look like in Podkarpacie?
In the continuation chart below of wheat contracts listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, the long-term downtrend dominates, the medium-term trend is upward, and the short-term trend is upward.
Chart 3
CBOT wheat, July contract – price decreased by 1.12%. ($203.37/t – PLN 906/t).
Chart 4
The Chicago Stock Exchange is currently dominated by a long-term downward trend, a medium-term upward trend, and a short-term upward trend.
Chart 5
MATIF corn, August contract – the price dropped by 1.54%. (EUR 207.75/t – PLN 896/t).
Chart 6
The quotations of August corn futures contracts expressed in PLN are presented in the chart below:
Chart 7
In the continuation chart below of corn contracts listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, the long-term downtrend dominates, the medium-term trend is upward, and the short-term trend is upward.
Chart 8
CBOT corn, linden contract – price dropped by 3.99%. ($156.39/t – PLN 631/t).
Chart 9
The continuation chart of corn contracts listed on CBOT is dominated by a long-term downward trend, a medium-term upward trend and a short-term downward trend.
Chart 10
