- In 2025, inflation will continue to grow and may be higher than this year. Its decline is only forecast for 2026, assuming that nothing shocks the market. Additionally, experts remind that the current price fight between discount stores is slowing down the level and pace of price growth. But at the same time, they warn that during the holidays, stores may pass on the entire VAT tax that was unfreezed in April to their customers.
- According to the report entitled "PRICE INDEX IN RETAIL STORES" by UCE RESEARCH and the WSB Merito University, in June this year. everyday purchases became more expensive on average by 3.1% year on year. This was shown by the analysis of over 71.4 thousand retail prices from over 32.2 thousand stores belonging to 59 retail chains. In May, y/y growth. (calculated according to the same methodology) was 2.9%, in April – 2.4%, and in March – 2.1%.
– Currently, the inflation target in Poland is 2.5%, with an acceptable fluctuation range of plus 1 or minus 1 pp. This means that NBP strives to maintain annual inflation at a stable level and prevents sudden price jumps that may distort the decisions of consumers and enterprises. Therefore, price increases range from 1.5 to 3.5% y/y. is a natural phenomenon – argues Dr. Anna Semmerling from the WSB Merito University.
According to the expert, as a result of the elimination of the reduced VAT rate on food in April and the increase in the minimum wage in July, another price increase can be expected in the following months. It may amount to approximately 5% y/y. – It wouldn't be tall or short. If he actually stayed on the above-mentioned level, this would show that we have not yet achieved the level of price stability – analyzes Dr. Semmerling. Additionally, analysts from UCE RESEARCH add that prices in stores may even go slightly beyond the above. level.
Inflation drives increases in food prices
As stated by prof. emergency Ph.D. Sławomir Jankiewicz from WSB Merito University, the current market situation was forecasted from the beginning of this year. So this is no surprise.
– In December, inflation may increase to approximately 4-5%. This will be caused, among others, by: increase in energy and gas prices and related distribution fees. This will result in higher costs of services, district heating and fuels. Importantly, in 2025 inflation will continue to grow and, consequently, it may be higher than in 2024, the expert predicts.
Prof. Jankiewicz also adds that only from 2026 can we expect inflation to drop again. This prediction may, of course, come true if no negative scenario occurs, such as a global economic recession or an extension of the war conflict in Europe. An increase in fees or levies aimed at reducing the budget deficit would also pose a threat to the positive scenario.
– The significant increase in Poland's debt, which was caused by the previous government, causes the current government to have problems with maintaining the deficit and debt within the framework consistent with national regulations and EU requirements. The need to reduce it may result in looking for additional income. It is worth recalling that Mateusz Morawiecki introduced dozens of new fees and levies or increased their amounts for the same reason – emphasizes Prof. Jankiewicz from WSB Merito.
Price increases in stores are inevitable
In turn, analysts from UCE RESEARCH note that due to the intense fight between discount stores in the months following the unfreezing of VAT, prices should return to the right level more slowly. However, increases by the current rate of the above-mentioned tax are inevitable.
– The aggressive price competition we face on the retail market actually affects the level and pace of price increases. However, we must remember that sooner or later stores will want to reach a certain level of profitability and will pass on the entire VAT tax to their customers. It seems that the holiday period may be the perfect moment for this, warns Dr. Artur Fiks from the WSB Merito University.
The report also shows that in June this year out of 17 monitored categories, 12 showed a single-digit increase (in May – identically, in April – 10, and in March – 8). In addition, 1 product group saw a double-digit increase (in May – the same, in April – 2, in March – 1). Moreover, 4 declines were recorded (similarly in May, 5 in April and 9 in March).
– Inflation stabilized in the period from April to June. That is why most categories showed a single-digit price increase, and only 1 group – a double-digit increase. Additionally, 4 categories became cheaper, just like a month earlier. However, this situation may change in July as a result of increases in electricity and gas prices, says Dr. Artur Fiks.
