EU gas EU without Ukrainian transit: how it began 2025years

” Gazprom lost the oldest route of supply to Europe. How is the European Union feeling without Russian gas? What about prices, stocks in CNG, gas supply

Austria and Slovakia? Gas stove. Photo illustrative. Photo: Ants Liigus

Gazprom lost the oldest route of supplies to Europe. How does the European Union feel without Russian gas? What about prices, stocks in storage facilities, gas supply to Austria and Slovakia?

Deliveries of Russian pipeline gas to

Europe by transit through Ukraine ended early early morning on the first day of New, 2025 year, and January 2 trading on the main European gas exchange, the Dutch TTF, began with quotes at about 51 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh). This is approximately 540 dollars per 1000 cubic meters, writes DW.

Stock prices for gas: temporary jump against the trend?

Such high prices on this trading place haven’t been since the autumn of 2023 year. So that the European market reacted to the closure of the oldest Russian export gas pipeline route, through which Gazprom pumped in 2024 year to EU countries approximately 15 billion cubic meters. m, significant increase in prices for futures contracts. It should be noted that on October>1, when the official beginning of the current heating season, gas was worth 40 euros. So the quotes have risen from those pors by 25%.

Nevertheless they are still almost seven fold below the record levels of August.2022 year, when quotes rose to 340 euros, and below the average prices of 2023 year, which were held then up to November substantially above 50 euros. So, two years ago the futures contracts were up in the first first number of January to 70 euros, according to data on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) website.

In other words, a historical event, as the termination of the long-standing more than half-century transit through Ukraine of large volumes of first Soviet, and and then Russian gas, could not could not lead to a noticeable increase in quotes on TTF. This should be expected. But it is possible that we are dealing with only a short-term burst of prices on the background of a very obvious mid-term trend to their relative decline.

It is in favor of the assumption that this is, really, only a temporary jump, caused by speculative playing on the raising of the political event (the termination of transit after the expiration of the five-year Russian-Ukrainian contract), a number of factors says.

First, on the second day of trading, 3 January, the prices on TTF did not continue to increase and the main time wobbled below the mark of 50 euros. Secondly, two years in 2023 and in 2024, the same and the same effect, a namely: in January and February by meaning that, as long cold weather in Europe was not coming and stocks in underground storage of gas (UGS) remained high, quotes were significantly decreasing. So, in the last year prices dropped by the end of February below 30 euros. Third, European storage facilities and in this heating season are once again well filled, so that the available reserves are enough to mitigate the peaksconsumption in the event of strong frosts.

European GS: comfortable level of full

But before we go to a detailed analysis of stocks in the EU’s gas storage facilities, recall the extremely important recovery from the energy crisis of 2022 year: one deed is the increase in prices for gas, the other disaster is the problem of physical scarcity of fuel. What the elemental lack of gas causes can be clearly observed now in Moldova and especially in Transnistria. There already 2 January, on the next day after the cancellation of Ukrainian transit, practically all essential industrial enterprises stopped, and even before that gas was cut off to the population.

The EU never had anything like this even at the height of the energy crisis in the fall of<2022 year, let alone now. In Europe and there is no speech about any physical gas shortage. The New 2025 year (and in the second month of winter) the European Union entered with gas reservoirs full of 72%, from data on the website of the European Gas Infrastructure Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE).

And 72% – this is the average of the EU, which is slightly “spoiled” data, for example, from France, Netherlands, or Croatia, where the storage facilities are less than 60% full. But these are countries that previously had never used Russian pipeline gas. If the largest in the past European clients of Gazprom, Germany and Italy, then their gas storage facilities were full on January 1 more than three quarters: by 80% and by 79%, respectively.

In More Poland, which used to be the biggest client of Gazprom in Eastern Europe, the Gas storage facilities are filled even in East Europe.86%. In Austria and Slovakia, the most of all in the EU dependent until recently on Ukrainian transit (about they will be talked about), the level of filling of gas storages was on the first day of the new year 78% and 76%.

All this is a very comfortable level even in the strong and relatively long January frosts. So, in Germany the law adopted in 2022 in the conditions of the energy crisis, obliges gas storage operators to ensure annually that by 1 February that the gas storage facilities are filled to a minimum of 30%. It is believed that this is that level, with that it is always possible to complete without interruptions to complete the heating season in April and by the summer to completely pump gas into storage by the next winter.

High stocks in German gas storage facilities

So now, since in Germany on January 1 the level of fill was 80%, this means, that this indicator could decrease in the month by even 50 percentage points, and by 1 February the law’s requirement to ensure the reserves of 30% will always be fulfilled. But a similar depletion of the CGS is extremely likely even in the case of long long permanent frosts, the probability of which in Europe in conditions of continued global warming and without that is reduced.

In any case, in the first three months of the current heating season, from October to December, the level of the filling of the GermanGS decreased only by 16 pounds.p. – from 96% to 80%. Although in November and December there were already quite cold days and especially nights,

But even if in the next four weeks suddenly all thinkable negative factors – severe frost, the absence of wind and sun, yet also and some technical accident at gas infrastructure in the large supplying countries – dropping of gas reserves in German storage facilities below critical levels in 30% looks only a theoretically possible scenario.

So it is possible that gas storage facilities in Germany, and they are by a large distance the most powerful in the EU, can supply fuel not only the FWG itself, but when required also the neighboring countries. Because in together the EU levels of the filling of the CNG dropped from October to December somewhat stronger, than in Germany – by 22 p. from 94% to 72%. As a result, some media cited publications about extremely high rate of gas withdrawal from European Gas storage facilities this winter. But once again we emphasize: the reserves in 72% of the available capacity as of 1 January are still a very comfortable source situation.

Austria is well prepared for life after Gazprom

Gas from German Gas storage facilities could be when unfavorable development of events is needed, for example, Czech Republic or Austria, which was the last time the largest receiver of Russian gas through Ukraine. More than that, even in the last year its share in Austrian gas imports was sometimes 80%.

Austrian semi-public oil and gas concern OMV, a long-standing partner”Gazprom, was bonded until 2040 year to the contract, binding it to pay the full amount of the contracted significant amounts even if it actually takes less.

That’s why the pragmatic Austrians continued to import the Russian gas through Ukraine, but while intensively preparing for the end of the Ukrainian transit and simultaneously seeking the opportunity to withdraw from the agreement with the Russian partner, which since 2022 year has not repeatedly breached its contractual obligations. The more so that on the background of the war in Ukraine the entire EU is striving as faster as possible to completely stop gas cooperation with the aggressor country. And now in November Gazprom gave the Austrian concern the ideal opportunity to legally cleanly terminate the contract, about which DW DW detailed in the article “How OMV put an end to Austria’s dependence on Gazprom”.

By this time OMV with well filled PCGS already had large contracts to purchase Norwegian pipeline gas, contracted in different countries regasification capacity of LNG-terminals and booked in neighboring Germany and Italy gas pipeline capacity to transit gas to Austria.

Slovakia has three new routes for importing gas

The issue is about the volumes of which OMV could sell to neighboring Slovakia, which, like Austria, doesn’t have an exit to the sea and until since now is also very strongly dependent on Ukrainian transit. Luckily, there is all the necessary transport infrastructure: the pipes through Ukraine through Russian gas from Slovakia from Slovakia to Austria, nowcan be used in the reverse mode, pumping gas in the opposite direction, from the west to the east.

And in the 2015 year the Slovakia-Hungary gas pipeline went into construction. This interconnector connected the gas transportation systems of the two countries, so that a part of the gas, which Hungary receives from Russia through the Black Sea through the “Turkish flow” and then through the “Balkan flow” through Bulgaria and Serbia, could be purchased by Slovakia. A A in August 2022 the interconnector Poland-Slovakia with a capacity of 4.7 billion cubic meters per year in the Slovakian direction was constructed. So that with this pipeline alone it would almost fully supply the country’s annual needs for gas.

Of course, new suppliers and new delivery routes will increase Slovakia’s costs for importing fuel. The media called sums from 180 to 220 million euros of additional expenses per year. In the European gas business this is some money, though for small Slovakia it is probably quite substantial.

Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fizo could surely agree in Brussels on some compensations or preferences for his country, But this pro-Russian politician preferred to go to Moscow. Maybe he counted on some option in which Slovakia would always be able to receive through Ukraine Russian gas, and then withprofitwillsellittoAustria,assheactivelydidthisinthelastweeksofDecember?

Let’s see what the comingdaysandweeksshow. In any case, Slovakia’ssituationisincomparablybetterthanthanTransnistria’s:itisinthesurrounded bypartnersintheEuropean UnionandaftertheterminationoftheUkrainiantransithastechnicalopportunitiestoimportpipedorregasifiedliquefiedliquefiedgastransitimmediatelythroughthreeneighboringEU countries.

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