– The beginning of this year's holidays will be slightly more expensive for drivers who fill up with diesel fuel, as a liter of this fuel is about 30 cents more expensive than last year. The level of gasoline prices is similar to last year, says Rafał Zywert, an expert at Reflex.
Unfortunately, after several weeks of reductions, in July it is expected that the average retail price of gasoline and diesel will increase by 5-10 groszy/l. We can expect price increases already in the first week of the month, i.e. now.
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Holiday promotions
Another new, secular tradition are holiday promotions at gas stations. In order to implement promotions, prices must first be raised, of course.
According to experts from Reflex, holiday promotions will allow you to buy gasoline and diesel oil approx. 20-45 gr/l cheaper. Promotions were announced by all the largest national gas station chains, i.e.: Orlen, Bp, Shell, Circle K. This is over 40 percent. total number of gas stations in Poland.
– Holiday refueling will still be much cheaper than in the record year of 2022. As a reminder, at the end of June 2022, the average price of Pb95 gasoline in Poland was PLN 7.82/l, while diesel was PLN 7.88/l. Currently, the average price of Pb95 gasoline in the EU is PLN 7.10/l (EUR 1.65/l), while diesel is PLN 6.77/l (PLN 1.57/l). Americans, on the other hand, currently pay an average of USD 3.438 for a gallon of gasoline (PLN 3.66/l) and USD 3,769 for a diesel gallon (PLN 4.01/l) – notes Rafał Zywert, Reflex expert.
Situation on the world market
According to experts, higher prices are not just a holiday whim of retailers. Prices of the August series of Brent crude oil contracts increased to USD 87/bbl and are the highest since the end of April. During the week, the price of Brent crude oil increased by more than USD 1.5/bbl and this is the third consecutive week of price increases.
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– Geopolitics is temporarily coming back to the fore. The market is speculating on the escalation of the Israel-Hamas conflict. The US Department of State announced the imposition of sanctions on three more companies and 11 tankers transporting Iranian crude oil and petrochemical products. Sanctions are the US response to the further development of Iran's nuclear program. In May, Iranian oil production was at the level of 3.2-3.3 million bbl/d and was approximately 0.5 million bbl/d higher than last year. Iran remains a member of the OPEC+ agreement, but the country is not subject to production limits. In May, India, according to official data from PAAC (Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell), increased the export of middle distillates by 13.4% m/m to 3 million tons. In the first five months of this year, India exported 14.83 million tons of middle distillates, which means an increase of 4.2% y/y. India is currently the fourth largest supplier of diesel to Europe after Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the USA. – notes the Reflex expert.
